Playalong time: Play my opponent's hand...

[aK13]

I'm betting a crapload of things the whole way. Raising, however...

SB isn't betting a board-2pair...

Voracious is on to something.

EDIT: I have to go right now, but I'll post my thoughts when I get home in a couple hours.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
True. Most players won't defend with as many hands as I will, though, especially against an unknown player.

Anyways on the flop, I think regardless of what SB is going to do, we should be raising here. We have so much value/equity to forgo. On this flop, it is very likely to have missed me completely. You have 4 outs to the nut straight, 9 to a flush, and your T and 9 outs are likely to be good for at least 3 or more if I am raising with big/small broadways, giving you approximately 16+ outs. On top of that, I might back down with overcards, allowing you an opportunity to semi-bluff a blank turn and pick up the pot, or take a free card if you so choose.

Well, my opponent called...so here's the rest of the hand:

Preflop: You are CO with T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, MP folds, You call, Button folds, SB completes, <font color="red">I raise</font>, You call, SB calls.

Flop (6SB): 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, <font color="red">I bet</font>, You call, SB calls.

Turn (4.5BB): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">SB bets</font>, <font color="red">I raise</font>, You call, SB calls.

River (10.5BB): J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, <font color="red">I bet</font>, You ?
(explain why)

[/ QUOTE ]

first off raising from the CO w/ T9s shouldn't be your default play(for those suggesting it), its fine on the button, but still is on the weak end of stealing hands


villian calls the river going for an overcall

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
villian calls the river going for an overcall

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Given the read, SB looks to have made (edit:trips) and will likely call two cold. Even if you don't, you'll probably get a call from aK13 in the 13BB pot if his hand is worth raising the turn. That's the same amount you'll get from SB's overcall.

[imported_ncray]

It's dead obvious that CO is on a flush draw, calling down the flop and turn. A straight draw is not feasible because you would need a hand like 79 or 35 in order to be getting sufficient odds to call. The PF limp is a mistake, but even more of a mistake would be to limp with a hand like 35 or 79, so it's pretty safe to say that CO is on a flush draw IMO.

You, a thinking player, know that SB's donk on the turn means a good hand, most likely trips (since that's the only "draw" that the turn card completes). You also know that CO is on a flush draw and has just made his flush. So why do you lead?

I'm thinking you have a monster, maybe a boat with 88 or JJ. SB will call anything since he has trip 4s. You know CO will raise your hand for you with his completed flush, so you 3-bet when it gets around and CO will be compelled to call. This way you get 3 bets out of SB and 3 bets out of CO, a total of 6 BBs. If you checkraise the CO it is not guaranteed that he will 3 bet with his semiweak flush. SB calls of course and CO calls, giving a profit of only 4BBs.

Action: CO folds river, unwilling to be BB's bitch

[Redd]

I don't think it's that obvious that CO is on a flush draw. Remember, your table image is 'lame duck'. You just openlimped from the CO. You could be a donk with a small pair that you can't let go of here.

[baronzeus]

no offense, but I don't think you should tell us the results. That would make this post stupid and result oriented.

And yes, I think since villain is betting the whole way, you raise and fold to a 3bet. plus, the fact that SB bet here doesn't mean that he has trips. he didn't 3bet the turn, which not only a fish would do, but I would do as well. on such a raggy board.


whatever, just call, and hope SB overcalls.

[scotty34]

I came into this one late, but I am going to have to say just call. If you raise and knock out SB, you would make the same as when you call and he overcalls except you lose one less bet when behind.

If we raised here, I certainly do not want to have to fold to a 3-bet (which would be the correct play I think). I think there is a very good chance we are behind here based on the reads you provided. SB almost certainly has a 4 as he woke up when the board paired, and he is 70% VPIP. The fact that you would also know he has trips and are still willing to raise (fully knowing he won't fold) makes me think you have 88. Also, you are willing to bet when the flush card hits after watching me call 2 cold. You have a boat almost all of the time - I call.

[imported_ncray]

[ QUOTE ]
You have a boat almost all of the time - I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are getting 12.5-1 odds to call, so it will be breakeven if he has a boat 7.4% of the time. If you think he has a boat more often than that, fold. Less often, call. I lean towards fold.

[aK13]

scotty is completely right here...SB is representing a 4 -- after I raise his turn bet, my range of hands is pretty much exclusively on 88 or 66 since I will not raise any hand that isn't better than trip 4s, and given the action so far, those are the only two hands.

It's not obvious that CO is playing a flush draw...for all I know, he could be calling down with a 6 here, or chasing a straight.

SB shows K4o, I show 88, CO was drawing dead on the turn.

However, then the question is about folding to the turn raise with T9s here. With reads these solid, it seems the correct play would be to fold there, knowing that you are not folding a live draw ~2/7.5 times.

Anyways, I hope you all get a sense of hand reading and such out of this hand. Been a while since I've posted anything. This hand occurred shortly after some discussion about Evan's 32s hand, where some 2+2ers were advocating a turn raise (go search for it). I think raising the river in this hand is a very serious error.

[imported_ncray]

[ QUOTE ]

It's not obvious that CO is playing a flush draw...for all I know, he could be calling down with a 6 here, or chasing a straight.


[/ QUOTE ]

This would be read dependant. If CO is a thinking player at all he would not call down with a 6, and I already gave a list of possible straight-chasing hands, none of which are feasible. So I guess if the CO is TAGish, we are nearly 100% sure it's a flush draw, and if he is not a solid player, then we really open up our range of hands. Again, highly read dependent.