Let's try a play along...newbies' chance to shine

[karitek]

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The rest of the hand is not as rife with speculation. When the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fell on the turn it made me really wish that I had raised the flop since it wouldhave allowed me to lead out the turn, but c'est la poker.


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I don't get it. why can't you lead the turn if you didn't raise the flop?

i think you should raise the flop to clean up overcard outs. i like check/calling the turn though. you don't have enough equity to bet for value.

[AKQJ10]

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Well, this isn't getting as much interest as I'd hoped, but I'll soldier on.

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I thought it made for an interesting thread. 20-odd posts in four hours seems like a success to me, but perhaps hanging around the Beginners forum is dampening my expectations.

And FWIW I think checking and then raising the flop is probably right, as is semibluffing the turn. But both of those would be close to check/calling in my mind. (I have doubts as to how often raising to buy outs is worth the price.)

[Mathieu]

Now the situation is different. MP1 and MP2 have indicated that they don't have a piece of this flop. MP3 could have anything, A high, a flush draw, middle pair.

Now a raise is likely to knock off MP1 and MP2 since they most likely missed the flop. One of them could have AQ, and the raise would buy 2 outs. Also if one of them has an A, our hand might gain some showdown value. For example if we check on 4th street and MP3 checks behind, we can be pretty confident that he is on a flush draw, and we can look him up at showdown if a safe card falls.

With 10.5 SB in the pot I would be tempted to try this raise, because it has a good chance to knock off MP1 and MP2 and increase our winning chances. Maybe that is too aggressive, I will have to read on...

Edit: I forgot that the bettor is the player that have been involved in raising wars with Hero. This is enough to make me want to just call as it would suck to pay 3 bets for this draw.

[AKQJ10]

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I don't get it. why can't you lead the turn if you didn't raise the flop?

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That's a good point. Because the turn was an overcard to the flop, leading represents that you made aces. If the turn had been a blank, leading would be a little suspicious (though not necessarily wrong) because it's harder to believe the turn improved your hand.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, this isn't getting as much interest as I'd hoped, but I'll soldier on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it made for an interesting thread. 20-odd posts in four hours seems like a success to me, but perhaps hanging around the Beginners forum is dampening my expectations.

And FWIW I think checking and then raising the flop is probably right, as is semibluffing the turn. But both of those would be close to check/calling in my mind. (I have doubts as to how often raising to buy outs is worth the price.)

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Wow. Somehow the meat of your response isn't showing up, so here it is.

Yeah...I just have to stop comparing my posts to Entity's...not to mention my results.

And the more I've thought about it, the more I'm not sure that my line wasn't right. It's always hard when you know how it comes out, but with a passive table like this I'm probably not chasing out any jack, and maybe not any ace for one more bet on the flop, so quietly chasing my draws was the way to go.

[bozlax]

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With 10.5 SB in the pot I would be tempted to try this raise, because it has a good chance to knock off MP1 and MP2 and increase our winning chances. Maybe that is too aggressive, I will have to read on...

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I would agree if MP2 weren't a Hatfield to my McCoy. I'm pretty sure he's going to call anything I throw at him, and possibly pop me back. And, since MP3 led out, I don't think we're losing him for one more bet.

[Mathieu]

I'm checking this,it is too likely that this card helped one of my opponents. I don't see a semi-bluff working often enough in this spot to compensate for the times I'll get raised. Also if the flop bettor has been involved in raising wars with Hero, it might be even more likely that he'll raise a donk bet.

[aK13]

Well, maybe I'm a LAG, and I haven't read any responses, but I'd:

Raise preflop.
Check/raise flop (buy outs for overs, try to knock out low pairs)
Bet turn (perfect card to semi-bluff at IMO).
Check/fold the river UI.

Not sure of villain's stats, though, but I'd play this way against most 3/6 6m'ers.

[Mathieu]

If you could fold MP2 and MP1, then even if MP3 calls on the flop, the raise should be beneficial. MP3 may call you with something that is either:

1) weaker than your hand (small flush draw)

2) too weak to call a turn bet (small pp)

In the first case your winnning chances would go up quite a bit, and in the 2nd you would set up a possible semi bluff for the turn.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
If you could fold MP2 and MP1, then even if MP3 calls on the flop, the raise should be beneficial. MP3 may call you with something that is either:

1) weaker than your hand (small flush draw)

2) too weak to call a turn bet (small pp)

In the first case your winnning chances would go up quite a bit, and in the 2nd you would set up a possible semi bluff for the turn.

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Right, but I could only fold MP1, maybe. MP2 is out for my blood (maybe that's strong, but he gets aggressive when bet into, especially by me), and MP3 might not even fold if MP2 raises and faces him with 2.