Funny Fold

[Trix]

AK is the hand that makes most sense for him, AA too. Those are 18 combinations and you are beat by all.

KcQc and KsQs makes good sense till the river, where the will make sense X% of the time.
I can imagine him pussying out on the turn with KK aswell and then figuring what the heck, it´s probably protected now or I could fold a 9 and I have to call anyway, so he may bet that too.
Lets be generous and give him 1/3 weight on that.

So you have 19:2x, which have to be better than 23:1, or that x is 41%

Just something to put it in perspective for the people saying that folding might be a HUGE mistake:

If he bet it 100%, then you win 2 times for +46 and loose 19 times for -19, making the calling EV (46-19)/21 or an EV of +1.29.

Calling when he only bets with the A is ofcourse a 1BB mistake.

Personally I think it´s close and folding may be right if it wont mess with your play for the rest of the session.

[jskills]

I really believe we're in all likelihood beat the majproty pf the time. But in order to fold confidently for one bet, we need to be sure we're beat 21 out of 22 times right? And villan is not exactly a tight player. I could be wrong and your math example is pretty well demonstrative.

Admittedly, I have a hard time folding on the river when I should in situations like this ...

Granted, I am nowhere near the level of playing 20/40 (I play 2/4), so maybe I should just shut the F up anyway.