|
|
#32
07-01-2005, 01:18 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way .
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The PFR's range includes broadway and down to 99. [/ QUOTE ] The PFR's range is broader than that. Mathematically, I already outlined what the "top 11%" of hands are. He's raising more hands than that from MP3. Here's a strictly 11% range: 99+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KJo+ Before you tell me I'm wrong again, give me an estimate for SB's range. AA and KK are less likely due to his aggression preflop -- it is likely but not certain that he would 3-bet with those hands. If we say he'll "defend" his SB with 8% of his hands, that's 88-AA, AJo+, ATs+. Against two opponents with that range of hands, your preflop equity is 37.5%. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I still think you do not fully appreciate how tight these players were, based on your top 11% calculations. I did not have enough hands with them to have any faith in that calculation. What I could have faith in though was the fact that I had not once in 4 hours at the table seen either one show anything but big broadways and high pairs down. So basically you are expecting me to push a very thin (and possibly non-existent) PF equity advantage against two players that have a good chance of being ahead of me, out of position against a raise. That does not seem wise to me. [/ QUOTE ] Did you post this hand because you were sure you played it perfectly and wanted us to all see how awesome you were? [/ QUOTE ] No, but I think your analysis is flawed. [/ QUOTE ] I think you may be right, Matador. I'm interested in hearing more. [/ QUOTE ] Um okay. Whether I'm right or not, I just didn't find your reasoning convincing. People can disagree without being disagreeable. Edit: I am curious about other people's thoughts though, since the preflop equity argument simply doesn't do it for me. Now that I think about it more, a mistake I made on the hand was checking the river, for example. I should have bet and called a raise, I think. 
|
|
#33
07-01-2005, 08:36 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way ...
I think I can sum up the problem here in a couple words Tilt: You are simply to convinced of your "great" reads.
Loosen up the horse blinders a little bit - they're obviously too tight. Get over your pokertracker stats. Realize that all the comments by numerous great posters has been dead on here. No one is coming to your defense. As I pointed out in QTip's thread a couple days ago - when you're trying to defend yourself and two, three or more posters are disagreeing with you - 99% of the time they're right and YOU'RE wrong. Ya know - I was playing against a worse rock than either of these guys the other night. He was something like 9/2/.5 over 500+ hands. I caught him open-raising 99 UTG+1. Stop thinking that the possible is "obviously" impossible just because you had a read. It is possible and it will happen - especially at PartyPoker [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I'm not going to delve into what I think the right line is here because it's already been mentioned several times. Listen to others, learn, apply, repeat. Good Luck [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
|
|
#34
07-01-2005, 01:34 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way ...
You're probably right. I've just learned to fear the worst from the rocks at 3-6, I guess.
For what it's worth, the guy showed KQo and I took the pot without getting in a raise at any point or a bet on the river. All the comments on here were in fact dead on. He was raising somewhat light and betting light on every street, and I totally misread both him and the SB.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
