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#31
06-26-2005, 11:55 PM
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Re: AKo turn decision
On the turn, there are 16 different single cards we're losing to. That's a little over a third of the unknown cards in the deck, and our opponents hold six cards total. If we assigned those six cards randomly, we'd be behind a substantial majority of the time.
Granted, the cards we're worried about are not very popular ones. But three (admittedly very loose) players did find a reason to call us on the flop. Anyone with a pair quite likely also has top pair, or two pair, or an 8, or a big overcard. I think it's going to be hard to get those hands to fold to a turn bet. Someone with a pair could also have just made a straight. Even someone who just has a pair because his any two suited hit a 3 or 6 on the flop will also have a flush draw at this point some of the time. No pocket pair will fold, except for maybe 22. If by some chance we are ahead (and I think we usually won't be), our opponents probably have a lot of outs against us, if we're called. Sometimes persistent betting pays off, but I just don't think this is the best spot. Edit: Hmm. The fact that two of our opponents are in the blinds does probably change the nature of the hands we could be up against, somewhat. My guess is that whatever chance we have of folding out a better hand probably went up a little, if that hand is held by someone playing junk versus a raise in the blinds. At the same time, the chances that we're behind do also go up, I think. And I'm not so sure someone who plays, say, T3o to a raise in the big blind gives up easily when he catches a piece. 
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#32
06-27-2005, 12:14 AM
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Re: AKo turn decision
[ QUOTE ]
In most cases you're going to be putting in one more bb into this pot, you might as well do it in the spot that gives you the best chance to take the pot. [/ QUOTE ] In most cases I would not be putting any more BB's in the pot. (Usually I won't catch an ace or king, and if I'm unimproved on the river and one of my passive opponents decides to bet the river in this 4-way pot, I'll just give him credit for having me beat.)
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#33
06-27-2005, 12:53 AM
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Re: AKo turn decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] In most cases you're going to be putting in one more bb into this pot, you might as well do it in the spot that gives you the best chance to take the pot. [/ QUOTE ] In most cases I would not be putting any more BB's in the pot. (Usually I won't catch an ace or king, and if I'm unimproved on the river and one of my passive opponents decides to bet the river in this 4-way pot, I'll just give him credit for having me beat.) [/ QUOTE ] is it not inconcievable that we actually have the best hand here. getting hands to fold here only benefits us, and the only way to get hands to fold here is by betting this
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#34
06-27-2005, 01:42 AM
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Re: AKo turn decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] In most cases you're going to be putting in one more bb into this pot, you might as well do it in the spot that gives you the best chance to take the pot. [/ QUOTE ] In most cases I would not be putting any more BB's in the pot. (Usually I won't catch an ace or king, and if I'm unimproved on the river and one of my passive opponents decides to bet the river in this 4-way pot, I'll just give him credit for having me beat.) [/ QUOTE ] is it not inconcievable that we actually have the best hand here. getting hands to fold here only benefits us, and the only way to get hands to fold here is by betting this [/ QUOTE ] I guess if we're up against three players who peel very loosely on the flop (and thus we could be ahead) and then give up on the turn (so even if we aren't ahead, we may drive a better hand out), then a turn bet starts looking more attractive. I'm curious what some of the experienced Micro-Limit posters would have to say about this hand, since I'm kind of out of touch with what it's like to play at tables like the one in this posted hand.
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#35
06-27-2005, 02:55 AM
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Re: AKo turn decision
two things I would like to comment on
1) I dont think anyone is folding a pair on the turn. maybe if you bet the turn + river then MAYBE, but a turn bet alone will almost never do it. which leads to... 2) I don't think betting the turn for a free showdown is very valuble against 4 opponents , he'll often have some kind of pair - as you add players because if you get called by even only one of the 4 opponentsto the pot, the odds go up fairly fast that someone hit, and he will always call the turn with it. if you feel the overwhelming need to take down this particular pot, I think you have to fire twice to get him to fold his T3o or 22 or A4o or whatever hand it is that is ahead of you now, and even that is spewy, I think. so I'd rather reserve the right to put bets in when I'm most likely to be ahead (by rivering a K or A) against 1 opponent, easy bet. against 2, maybe a bet depending on image. against 3 opponents or above, to think that our bet is protecting the best hand here is wishful thinking IMO. we're just holding A high here. all in all, I think this is a pretty easy check behind
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#36
06-27-2005, 02:58 AM
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Re: AKo turn decision
[ QUOTE ]
1) I dont think anyone is folding a pair on the turn. maybe if you bet the turn + river then MAYBE, but a turn bet alone will almost never do it. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you think that? If this was true, I agree with your assesment, but this is a very large assumption to be making. I think pairs are folded on this turn very frequently.
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#37
06-27-2005, 03:03 AM
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Re: AKo turn decision
I only say that based on BB and UTG being loose donks which I only assume means loose passive - if that read is wrong then it changes a little
also the BB could have any two here, if these were UTG/MP limpers you'd be more likely to have the best hand I think
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#38
06-27-2005, 03:18 AM
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Re: AKo turn decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] is it not inconcievable that we actually have the best hand here. getting hands to fold here only benefits us, and the only way to get hands to fold here is by betting this [/ QUOTE ] I guess if we're up against three players who peel very loosely on the flop (and thus we could be ahead) and then give up on the turn (so even if we aren't ahead, we may drive a better hand out), then a turn bet starts looking more attractive. I'm curious what some of the experienced Micro-Limit posters would have to say about this hand, since I'm kind of out of touch with what it's like to play at tables like the one in this posted hand. [/ QUOTE ] I haven't played at this limit in a half year myself, but I see players at 3/6 and 5/10 making these types of peels a lot still, and I would be willing to bet that it is even more pervasive at 1/2. I don't think we can fully take down the pot right here, but if we can get this HU, then I like our chances. Hell, I've bet out on the turn w/AK UI and taken down a 10 BB pot with several players in it when everyone folded at 3/6 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], so I don't think that it isn't possible at this limit at all
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#39
06-27-2005, 03:22 AM
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Re: AKo turn decision
[ QUOTE ]
I haven't played at this limit in a half year myself, but I see players at 3/6 and 5/10 making these types of peels a lot still, and I would be willing to bet that it is even more pervasive at 1/2. I don't think we can fully take down the pot right here, but if we can get this HU, then I like our chances. Hell, I've bet out on the turn w/AK UI and taken down a 10 BB pot with several players in it when everyone folded at 3/6 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], so I don't think that it isn't possible at this limit at all [/ QUOTE ] I suspect we're more likely to get turn folds at 3/6 than 1/2, really.
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#40
06-27-2005, 03:34 AM
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Re: AKo turn decision
[ QUOTE ]
I suspect we're more likely to get turn folds at 3/6 than 1/2, really. [/ QUOTE ] true, but this part can't be ruled out. I think we will get some folds, but I'm not expecting the field to fold. getting it HU I think is the priority
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