Do bookies respect Gigabet?

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
lmao @ dirk

110-1 odds in a 5000+ field.(does anyone have an update on expected ME players this year??)

ummm... no thanks.

I don't know crap about sports betting so I could be way off, but these look like sucker bets to me.

You are off, not sure if it's way off.

I have 199-1 about him to reach the top ten (I got him added to the betting on betfair and I suspect Pinnacle just copied the list).

An average player has a 660-1 chance of reaching this final and he's way way above the awful average in that field.
110-1 to reach the final means he'll do it six times more often than the average, which doesn't sound too suckerish to me.

I'm absolutely certain my 199-1 is a strong bet, not so sure about 110-1.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Lorinda, I think even 199-1 is steep.

[GtrHtr]

Now that is a very good avatar. Well done.

[llabb]

Thank you, Lorinda, for the info. Are you connected in any way with betfair, or did they really add him due to just one phone call? If it really is just from your phone call, I'm very surprised that the odds on him aren't better. They would have no reason to put him at the same odds as name pros, if so, it's just another example of the books screwing the public.

[lorinda]

I gave them a call and asked if they could add him, their reply was "I'm sorry, I have never heard of him"
I said "He cashed at The Mirage three times this week if you want to look it up on pokerpages" and the guy said "In that case we'll be happy to add him"

I then put up 999-1 which didn't get matched, but someone offered 199-1 which I took nearly instantly.

Since then he has traded at 119-1 for the same amount (a 50 GBP bet) and that's all the action they've had.

If Pinnacle did take their betting from Betfair, that second bet is probably enough to worry them.

There are some players on the Pinnacle list, such as Howard Plant that leads me to believe that at least part of the list is taken from Betfair, as there is no way an expert would put him in the top 130,000 players in the world, let alone the top 130, but he is well known in the UK and hence makes the UK list.

Lori

[TheTimeIsUp]

WTF. Gigabet is in, but Gavin Griffin isn't?

[llabb]

Gotcha. Thanks, Lorinda. I have since seen Gigabet appear on some other books' lines, so they must be sharing the info.

I only peruse books open to Americans, and don't know much about betfair. From what you've written, I gather, is it an exchange-traded type of book that simply matches up bettors, similar to Tradesports? That would make sense the way you've explained it, and now makes sense how his odds got lowered so drastically.

I'm curious, the odds you're willing to take seem much lower than others here or on the Sports Betting forum. If you put Giga or another top player at roughly 200-1 to make the final table, what are you estimating the right odds are for a top player to win?

Most other people seem to want a field bet. Would you be on that bet, or the other side of it, and what odds would you be willing to take on that (assuming it was the field vs. every noteworthy player imaginable, say 500 or so)?

[lorinda]

If I can pick the top 500 players, I'll happily give you even money about the field.
That being said, I'd want to research the top 500 properly.

I think the favorite should be around 500-1 in this field.

Betfair is indeed an exchange.

Edit: Please don't take the fact that I would give the bet to mean I currently will.
An actual list of the best 500 would take me a very long time to compile.

Lori

[llabb]

Well, Pinnacle's offering most top players between 300-1 and 600-1, so you might be able to find a wager you like. It still seems a bit steep to me. Keep you posted if I find anything interesting!

Oh, and I wasn't implying I wanted to wager against you, just wanted your opinion on the odds since you seemed pretty knowledgeable about it all.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
What is Gigabet's name?

[/ QUOTE ]

Keyzer Soze.

[SuitedSixes]

$200. Book it.