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#33
06-16-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: Using a timing tell
[ QUOTE ]
Hand played out pretty quickly, but the villian waited about 15 seconds before checking the river. Usually this is a sign that the player is trying to scare you into checking behind. [/ QUOTE ] I think the pause is usually a sign that the player has found an interesting website, has just received a phone call, or is being yelled at by his wife to stop spend so much time playing poker. I do agree though, that when the pause is poker-related, it is more likely to mean that he's trying to intimidate you into checking behind, than considering whether to checkraise you with his rivered monster. But I think it's most likely to mean nothing at all. Like many other posters in this thread, at first I thought the river bet was spewing. Without the preflop raise surely a loose passive player would call with his flopped pair of 6s or fold his T7 missed gutshot. But I like your analysis of his hand range - did you do that at the table, or after the fact? Nice hand. 
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#35
06-16-2005, 01:16 PM
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Re: Using a timing tell
This looks exactly like how typical Party players would play a medium pocket pair. Especially if they've watched WPT where 77 is a "real hand".
Even loose Party players that will call the flop and turn to "see what happens" aren't going to call a bet on the end with no pair after getting 3-bet PF and bet the whole way IMHO. I think opponent will call with a pocket pair, raise if he just caught the flush and fold when behind so I don't see how you're making money on this.
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#38
06-16-2005, 05:37 PM
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Re: Using a timing tell
IMO, the river is not as obviously a check as people are saying.
It is very possibly +EV. I think, before anyone comes out and says its DEAD wrong, we need to give some hand ranges, and how often we are called here by AJ/AQ.
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#39
06-16-2005, 05:41 PM
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Re: Using a timing tell
Are you expecting to be CALLED by a worse hand?
-WT
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#40
06-16-2005, 05:45 PM
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Re: Using a timing tell
[ QUOTE ]
Are you expecting to be CALLED by a worse hand? [/ QUOTE ] Sometimes, yes. What you have to do, is determine the frequency at which an unknown has: [range of hands], then determine the frequency at which AK folds, AQ/AJ calls, and how often he has these hands. Then, do the same for the hands that hero beats. (FWIW, I remember a hand similar to the one to which he is referring in MHS)
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