A simulation of Variance (Long)

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
my BR is 400$ right now. i started with half like raptor said. im starting to think 400 might not be a bigenuf bankroll altho im not sure what my roi is but in the past 150 games i have a roi of about 15% ..
anyway my question is b4 i start taking some money out of my account how much should i leave in?/??

500 , 600 , 800.. for psychological reasons too.

[/ QUOTE ]


I used to leave everything in my poker account which I liked. It was nice playing the 11s and 22s with $6000+ in my accounts. I could lose and not even notice how much I lost.

Now I keep most in Neteller so I only have $500 which I hate. I had to reload after a $500 downswing. Very annoying.

Probably caused tilt looking at my shrinking account every bad beat.

So my advice is keep a little more than you need. Now I am at around $1000 for the 22s which seems fine.

[Nottom]

This is a nice post and all, but frankly I'm shocked that so many posters haven't already run simulations of their own.

They can be pretty easily done without any programming skill just using excel.

Here is just one of the previous posts on how to do so.

[FieryJustice]

OK...I feel like a total idiot asking this...but would someone run the numbers for me, assuming 15% for 1st, 11% for 2nd and 12% for 3rd? So, 7% roi and 35% itm. I basically would like to know how many buyins i need for my ror to be 0 and the size of the biggest downswing I may encounter. I GREATLY appreciate it. I hate computers.

[OrcaDK]

[ QUOTE ]
OK...I feel like a total idiot asking this...but would someone run the numbers for me, assuming 15% for 1st, 11% for 2nd and 12% for 3rd? So, 7% roi and 35% itm. I basically would like to know how many buyins i need for my ror to be 0 and the size of the biggest downswing I may encounter. I GREATLY appreciate it. I hate computers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've contacted my spirits, and they came up with these results for your next 1000 SnG's (you didn't write buyin, so i'm assuming $20's, won't make a difference anyhow).



During this rollercoaster your biggest OOTM streak was 13 in a row, and you got ITM 7 in a row. Your biggest downswing was about 28 buyins.

EDIT: According to my simulation, your actual ROI should be around 25% with those numbers, and your ITM should be around 39%.

[FieryJustice]

Thanks a lot. I greatly appreciate it. I'm not too sure how you came up with the 20% roi though, as I have had about 7% roi over the last 2K games with 35% itm.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks a lot. I greatly appreciate it. I'm not too sure how you came up with the 20% roi though, as I have had about 7% roi over the last 2K games with 35% itm.

[/ QUOTE ]

From your first post -
15% - 1st
11% - 2nd
12% - 3rd

15+11+12 = 38% ITM

((.15*3.9)+(.11*1.9)+(.12*0.9)+(.62*(-1.1)))/1.1 = 20% ROI

Either you are calculating stuff wrong or your numbers are wrong.

[AgentSp]

I agree with the post that says they are surprised at how few people have tried this kind of simulation. I got the idea from a post a long time ago where EastBay mentioned how this is a simple task to perform.

The reason that I posted was that I thought the results were interesting - not so much the process involved.

However the reason that I started the simulation at all was to confirm to myself that after a large number of games the results achieved would form a normal curve. I know that this has caused some controversy in the past with it being counter intuitive as results from a single game are clearly not a smooth normal distribution.

If you don’t believe that this is the case then stop reading here. I checked the results predicted by the stats Vs my simulation and the results are close – really close for larger number of games involved.

I don’t recommend using this for any less than 50 games and preferably over 100. Open a fresh Excel sheet and :

In Cell A1 input the number of games played.

In Cell A2 input the buy in (including rake)

In Cell A3 input your ROI in decimal form (i.e if you have an ROI of 20% then input 0.2)

In Cell A4 input your target.

In Cell A5 (or anywhere in fact) input

=NORMDIST(A4/A1,A3*A2,(1.8*A2)/(A1^(0.5)),1)

Format this cell to be a percentage and viola this is the % chance of NOT achieving your target figure.