7 Stud: common mistakes made in basic starting hand situations

[bygmesterf]

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I've bitten off more than I can chew with all 4 situations right now. So I'm going to take them one at a time instead.

1. Player has split K’s. A decent player with split A’s raises two after the bring-in.
A. The player with split K’s should fold.
B. Most players call with split K’s.

I had assumed it was highly likely a player raising with an Ace showing, just two after the bring-in, would have a split pair of Aces. And if it is more than likely that he does, I don’t think Kings should be playing. However, Roland wrote “most players (decent or not) will complete with a lot of hands you can beat (like 3-flushes, buried queens, jacks or maybe even deuces).” This would change things.

So, let's assume the player with the Ace up will only raise with the following four type of hands (if this is a bad assumption, fire away):

AsQs2s – three spades – randomly occurs about 5.6% of the time
AsAc2d – split pair of Aces or trip Aces – randomly occurs about 8% of the time
AsQcQd – a pair in the hole from 7s thru Qs (I eliminated 2s thru 6s and Ks) – randomly occurs about 3% of the time
AsQcJd – two cards in the hole J or higher (should this be T or higher?) – about 2.4% (bringing it down a touch so we get a round number for the total) of the time.

That’s a total of 19% of the time this player will complete with an Ace up and two after the bring-in. That means there are 5 other players yet to act. What do you guys think about 19%? It feels about right to me from that spot. Some will clearly raise more often (with A22), some will limp in with drawing hands (As9s3s), so I think this is close to representative against a decent player.

So this means when the decent player two after the bring-in raises, he’s got these hands with these percentages of the time:
AsQs2s – 29.5% (I got this by 5.6% / 19%, won't show the work for the other hands)
AsAc2d – 42.1%
AsQcQd – 15.8%
AsQcJd – 12.6%


Against these 4 hands, KK3 will win this percentage of the time (numbers from twodimes.net)

AsQs2s – 63%
AsAc2d – 33%
AsQcQd – 58%
AsQcJd – 72%

So now the whole table shows:

Opp.’s Hand / Prob. KK will beat this hand / Prob. opponent has this hand
AsQs2s – 63% x 29.5%
AsAc2d – 33% x 42.1%
AsQcQd – 58% x 15.8%
AsQcJd – 72% x 12.6%

The total sum of the products is 50.7%.

This means against a player that plays the way assumed, the pair of Kings should win 50.7% of the time. Obviously this is just a cursory look, as I’m assuming its an all-in situation. But overall I think this should be fairly close if we assume neither can outplay the other in future rounds.


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Which suggests that if you win 50.7% of the time heads up, the ante money in high ante game will make this profitable. In big stud game (I.e 30/60 or 40/80) all that ante money makes all sorts of marginal situations break even or better if the cards where rolled out. When you add in the increased playing effeciency of a good player, all sorts of things become profitable.

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Against a player who often limps with an A showing in early position, maybe that means he’s more of a limper with 3 flush hands, and 3 high card hands, and pair with A up hands. Against those players, a raise would signify a split pair of Aces much more often, and against them, folding is best.


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It may be best, but usually if its raised once on 3rd, you realy ought to see 5th street to make your decision. This suck in effect is insidious, and one of the reason's that it's really important to be aware of other people's habits on 3rd street.

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Against a player who raises with many more hands, such as with a hidden pair of 2s or AsTs9c, then the split pair of Kings has much greater equity in the hand and should definitely play the hand.


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You see this alot more in S/8 games. 7CSFAP has caused alot of people to become much more agressive than they were before it game out. In big stud game, you often just have to grin and bear it.

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Against a player as described in the calculations above, it doesn’t’ matter what you do in the long run. You’ll just have some volatility. So if you want lower volatility then you should fold. If you feel like gambling with Zero EV (I have no problem with that!), then go ahead and play.


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Oh NO, High varience Zero expectancy plays are very very important. You want to have an image of fearless wildman in big stud games. That means getting involved as much as possible. Anyways if I play better than my opponents I want to get as much involved, since I will make more profitable decisions than they will.

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So, I am ready to change my answer to:


1. Player has split K’s. A decent player with split A’s raises two after the bring-in.
A. Call, raise or fold, it doesn't matter how you play against decent players who aren't too loose or too aggressive. ( in case you are wondering, I did a separate calculation which made me comfortable that raising and folding is about the same - I assumed the bring-in had a split pair of 2s, and saw the differences between knocking him out with a raise, or keeping him in with a call - all in all, it seemed a wash)
B. Since it doesn't matter, then those that play all the time are not making a mistake.

Of course, some of my assumptions may be wrong, or you may disagree with them (you, meaning the reader, not Roland specifically), in which case it would change the results.

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Basicly, what this calls for is more data about the player invovled. As Mike Caro has noted, whenever a situation seems even, you need more data.

BTW Yao, if you are interested in doing a book on stud (that is not a reharsh of 7CSFAP), please please PM me.

[bygmesterf]

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My biggest problem has been playing high pairs unimproved and playing hands such as split jacks on third when there are two or three overcards still to act. With the jacks situation, I complete almost every time, although i'm starting to feel as if this is a mistake.

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It depends on how agressive the players with overcards are. The less agressive, the more I complete.

[bygmesterf]

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(I was in a 75/150 game with an A showing. The player to my left brought it in with a 2. Three players limped in with J, T and 9 showing, respectively. I raised with my split pair of A's. Everyone folded. Does this mean this is a bad game?)

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Your table image is awful.

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3. Player raises with split A’s two after the bring-in. A good player re-raises with a Q showing.
A. The player with split A’s should fold on 5th or earlier if unimproved.
B. Most players call through the River.


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Bahh, this is player dependent, QQQ is very rare. I don't fold aces before the river, unless my opponents board becomes too scary for comfort. Aces up often wins, and is very easy to make if you start with aces

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4. The bring-in is a 2c, and 5 players fold. The Player has split K’s and he raises. The next player (a solid player) has a A showing and he re-raises. (I had asked this question in an earlier post).
A. The player with split K’s should fold on the spot. But he really shouldn’t be doing that too often otherwise a sharp player will make a play on him in these situations.
B. Most players call.

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Because this is potential steal situation, everyone's playing standards are much weaker than they would normally be. KK is actully much stronger than normal in this spot. 3betting is could even be the right thing to do if the person with the A suspects you of stealing and would raise you light. You will have position though out the hand (K vs A hi board).

[Bartholow]

I think you should call 4th in that hand, although I usually don't call 3rd even vs. a known light raiser. In almost any form of (limit) poker, the worst thing to do vs a maniac is call with a speculative hand early and then give up easily.

Anyway, you've illustrated my point that a lot of players at the mid-limits seem to raise with a lot of ace hands. Others don't. I think the real answer to this split Ks vs. A-doorcard question is "it depends" on the player, even or ESPECIALLY against the "decent" ones.

[King Yao]

nt

[King Yao]

thanks for the comments. if i ever do a book on 7-Stud, it won't be until at least 2 years from now. clearly I don't know enough about the game, how people play, etc. to even think about that now. I imagine it would take at least 2 years of playing full time to get anywhre close to the level where writing a solid book would be worthwhile. At this point, I think of myself as a complete beginner in 7 Stud.