KJo meets huge pot

[TheHip41]

I guarentee you, that if I limped with A4s, and I didn't have a flush draw, and you bet the flop, I'm folding. If you check, and I pick up the nut flush draw, or a pair of aces, I'm not folding to a turn bet, or raise.

[ckessel]

No, AA is less vulnerable. Also depends on if AA has my backdoor flush.

However, after reading it again everyone has checked to the Hero, where the SSH "raise on the turn" scenario is about someone betting into you.

Given it was checked around, I guess I bet. I don't know. Seems close to me. If I bet, it'll get checked to me again and I can't face the flush draws with enough to make their odds poor. If I don't bet, there's an excellent chance someone will bet into me on the turn and I can raise it.

It seems like if you bet the flop, you'll only get 1.5BB out of the flop and turn from people drawing to beat you. If you wait and raise the turn, you'll get 2BB from drawing hands or force them to fold a large pot.

If the hand comes on the turn that beats you, you're pretty assured of action showing you're beat and can safely fold for 0, or maybe 1BB depending on where the action comes from. If you bet the flop, it seems like a bad card sets you up for a c/r by someone that makes their hand, and you lose 1.5BB.

If there were only 3 people at the flop, it's a clear bet to me as I can't really thin the field with a turn raise.

So, I think if my AA has the backdoor flush, I bet. I'm not as concern if the flush hits as I have outs. If I don't have the backdoor, I'm tempted to check the flop and raise the turn.

SSH, p161. "With a very vulnerable hand that will often be ruined on the turn, and that you cannot easily protect, you should frequently wait to raise. You should wait when: 1) the flop bet comes from your left, 2) when the pot is extremely large."

We don't have condition #1 in this case, but in MP3, I'm nearly certain a bet will come from my left on the turn.

Hmm...tough spot. Fun to think about though.

[Bill C]

Hi Stew,

Maybe it was not such a good idea to raise with KJo preflop. In SSH, which you quote elsewhere, the recommendation is to limp with this hand, if you play it at all, as it is easily dominated. And with the multiple raises you set up with your initial raise, you create the large pot you have to deal with on the flop, plus make it seem very likely that you could be dominated, just based on the large number of hands still in play.

The flop was great for you. You have a very strong top pair and a BDF draw, giving you a very nice pot equity edge, and this is the main reason you should bet this flop. You have to get the money in when you have an edge, not later when that edge may be gone. Think of it this way: you are not always going to win with this exact hand, but the ones you win, you want to win as much money as you can.

You feel like a raise on the flop won't cause anybody to fold; I'm with 27offsoot anf Lil on this one: how do you know? Somebody with Ac4c might find little to love here in this flop. You don't want him to get a free shot at drawing an Ace on the turn. And with so many seeing the flop, there have to be at least several that missed entirely. A bet by you gives them the choice of paying to stay in with a bad hand or folding. Your hand, on the flop, is very good but to a degree, vulnerable, and avoiding a free card should be of paramount importance. Plus, this is your chance to collect from those that want to stay in for one more card.

Just my $.02 worth...

bill c