some questions

[J.R.]

thanks to everyone who took the time, on or off topic (but especially those on topic).

I pretty much always check here (being more inlined to bet v. looser guys or when I am raising an open limp, not an open raise with AK). They don't fold underpairs often enough in my expereince.

I like calling the river if he lead into me on an A or K.

I guess the reason for my post is that I still think I make too many "good folds" (actually they are probably bad a lot) and I generally find myself folding unimproved after I check behind in this and similar spots. But then i thought it sucks to 3-bet, bet and then surrender without any resistance, although this type of player will value bet lots of stuff on the river. So I figured i'd see what other ideas are out there. thanks to all again. unfortunately, I still feel unease with the best river play when lead into getting 5.5-1 (I think [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], sorry about the pot mistakes in the OP), but think I still lean towards a fold.

[kiddo]

Do I get you right? This is your default play?

You 3bet AK preflop against UTG raising 15% preflop.

Flop is QJx. He check. You bet, he call.
Turn is QJxx. He check. You check.
River is QJxxx. He bet. You fold.

[J.R.]

I know, that's why I posted this. basically, I think I need to call the river if I check, but rarely do it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

What do I beat KT, AT, AK, JTs? Assuming he has a decent aggression numbers (above 1 ish), is this a river call absent any kind of feel for his postflop bettting getting 5.5-1. I dunno, maybe I should call cause it feels uncertain and its good for the image. If the board is less connected the call is much easier (so perhaps is a turn bet) but that QJ combo hits a lot of hands and a 15 pfr utg isn't too frisky on average. I suck and can't think straight about this kinda hand. swedes rule at poker, give me the winning player's line here please.

[MecosKing]

Hey JR

I dunno, i think people talking about this are kindof giving too wide of a range of hands to the raiser. He is a 24%er, which means he is a good deal tighter than most players at the table. A 24%er will often times not come in with cheeze like JT (s or o) UTG, or stuff like A9s, JQ, etc. I mean am i the only one that thinks a 24%er is pretty tight?

That being said, he is probably a TAG...Which means that he is unlikely to just call a flop bet if he has a good peice of it, unless hes decided that your sufficiently LAGgy that he can make you payoff on a turn CR, in the event that he has a monster, like an overpair, or top 2, etc, etc. If he had even KJ, hed probably either lead to see where hes at, or else CR you and lead, if he thought his hand was good.

The flop call and turn check seems pretty weak to me coming from a player with those stats. Mind you, if he was your usual 40%, 1.2ish LAP, i would be MUCH more inclined to check than i would against a TAG, because LAPS often play like muppets, and are often strong-when-weak, and weak-when-strong. Because they are more passive they think they can extract extra bets with CRs... so to them, I check.

The TAG playing this way though, Suggests a weak draw like AK, AT, or an underpair that he is willing to put a bet in on the flop with, and on the river if the turn gets checked, but not if it doesnt.

Since TAGs are generally weak when weak and strong when strong, id probly bet here, then check behind if called.

If he's got TT or 99, and you are planning on calling the river anyway, then you are better off betting the turn, and giving him a chance to muck. Also, if he has AT, AK, or KT, you want him outta there, and you dont want him to bluff the river, and put you to a difficult decision to call or not- you got position! YOU are the one that should be putting HIM to the decisions here!

my 2 cents.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]

Just a guess, but I think my equity is a somewhere in the 33-37% (no pokerstove at work ) range and I don't see opponent folding 2nd pair enough to bet this turn. I think it's fairly close on the turn, but I check b/c:

1) Opponent is not likely to fold 2nd pair
2) My equity is probably in the 35% range, and
3) In my experience, opponent will not bluff at you on the river when he misses with AK, KT, or JT.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is basically what I'm thinking as well. But the 3-bet, bet, check, fold line doesn't feel right and I wonder how sure we can be concerning #1 and #3. A small pair doesn't need to fold that often or KT (or AK) doesn't need to get frisky for a turn bet to be better and the 3-bet and board kinda set themselves up for some flop action (unlikely WA/WB) and thus not too well for a turn check-raise, no?

[Victor]

my line here is to bet. if my opp is a routine checkraiser then i check. but for the most part i play against loose mofos and i want them to make a mistake with 88 or call with a10.

after the turn bet a river bet is mandatory unless you improve.

edit: i meant a river check.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
If he check-raises the turn I check-fold unimproved, calling a rivered A or K and raising a T

[/ QUOTE ]

this is def the right way to play against an unkown. with reads this can be an easy fold.

[J.R.]

I agree with ___1___, I think a 15 pfr raises soemthing like AKs-ATs(&o), JJ-77 (ruling out AA-QQ, per no PF cap), KQs-KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, KQo, KJ, maybe a shade lighter on the bottom side of these hands.

[ QUOTE ]
The TAG playing this way though, Suggests a weak draw like AK, AT, or an underpair that he is willing to put a bet in on the flop with, and on the river if the turn gets checked, but not if it doesnt.

Since TAGs are generally weak when weak and strong when strong, id probly bet here, then check behind if called.


[/ QUOTE ]

So you think hands like 88, 99, TT, KJ, AJ fold to a turn bet, or is he rasiing something other than the hands above?

[ALL1N]

I don't think the straightforward player you describe even considers betting the river with AT here, and he CR's KT on the flop.

You've got 1 vote for checking behind and folding to an unimproved river, or calling river A or K (raising T).

[MecosKing]

I think 88, 99 and quite possibly TT may fold to a turn bet if the guy is tight. After all, what can a 99 beat? Besides 88, and maybe 77, there is only one hand he can beat here, and and that is precisely your hand- a thinking player, IMHO, may very well make a 'good laydown' here. An AJ or KJ is a little better, and also can improve easier, so a decent J will probably stick around- In headsup pots, a strong 2nd pair hand is often a payoff hand, esp. without an ace on the board.

What i was saying is that if he DID have a big J (or Q obv), and hes a TAGgy player, i dont think that he'd have played it this way... He'd probably have led or CRed or something instead of going into calling station mode. Splitting the pot with another AK in this situation or losing to 88 or AT when you couldve used your position to make him muck is a disaster IMHO. And anyways, werent you saying that you planned to call a river bet? I mean, if your already willing to pay one bet to see what he holds, why not pay it on the turn instead of the river, to see if you can fold him out?

Haha..anyways im shure im totally off and he probly had pocket Queens--but this is the line id take on a player like the posted read suggests he is.