88

[TheUsher]

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Ok, I browsed through some of the replies here and there's a couple that make me happy that I play sng's to win $$$. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


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well, your reply has made me very happy as well.

I'm very glad that you would push any two here, coz I would definitely limp being the hero, with any real hand in that position. Pretty positive that there is a increaing number of players, who read these forums, and have started to blieve that all you have to do is push any 2 in a given spot everytime.


You better be wary if a good player limps from that spot. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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I could care less if a "good" player limps in that spot because a GOOD player would have pushed from the beginning. They'd be a total idiot to limp in this position knowing I'll push and they'll risk getting eliminated here. As the big stack in this situation, I have NO fear of busting whereas even your aces can get outdrawn by me with you getting a 4th if BB folds and you bust. It's still early, but there will be many more people other than me that'll say they'll push any 2 over a limp here.

BTW, have you seen me play at all? I take great joy in being the big stack and love pushing with any 2 when the situation warrants it. If I suck out dirty on you, then so be it, but that's my privilege as the big stack. The only way for me not to exploit you in this situation is for you to push first.

[UMTerp]

Usher,

Is that 1.2% assuming that the BB folding if SB calls you?

[TheUsher]

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Usher,

Is that 1.2% assuming that the BB folding if SB calls you?

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Sorry but eastbay's program doesn't have those "if" situations. I just typed in all the available info in this thread with hand ranges mentioned. It's probably impossible to make this a -EV push though.

[microbet]

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To answer your questions, assume these call ranges:

BB: any 2
SB: 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (default maniac setting which is even too loose)
BTN: JJ+

It's +1.2% / $11.62

Now let's assume something else, with the same info as above, and if you want a minimum 0.5% edge, you push with:

Push hands: 77+,AJo+,ATs+ (8%)

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As you pointed out the SB's range here is too loose. Why does he call with A2? I would push 66 here. I don't know about 55. I probably go to A9+ and KQ.

I'm pretty sure Curtains is going to post behind this saying only "I fold A9 here almost 100% of the time." or something like that.

[gumpzilla]

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I could care less if a "good" player limps in that spot because a GOOD player would have pushed from the beginning. They'd be a total idiot to limp in this position knowing I'll push and they'll risk getting eliminated here.

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So if I have AA and I knew you'd push if I limped I'm a total idiot because I'm risking getting eliminated here?

Given the condescending nature of your replies, I'd have expected less stupid comments.

[uphigh_downlow]

Well maybe you should start caring, or maybe not. I dont know which is better.

If I limp with AA there and if I'm very positive that the short stack will fold hoping I bust out to your reraise, I stand to gain a fair bit of equity

around 5%

if you push any two. and you stand to lose a fair bit as well.

The important fact is that the limpers hand is not any random two. Limper ha extra information about his hand, which you dont.

Even if the short stack calls and sucks out, I might not gain much equity, but you would sure lose some with that play.

Fact is that a good player can eploit the situation either way, by limping and by not limping or by making a creative play. Not a single strategy is not exploitable unless its an optimal straegy. And usually optimal strategies dont have a huge +EV.

I'm sure you are a winning player. But you are just hoping to run into average run of the mill players, and exploit them with your stack. And there is plenty around to make your play profitable.

[TheUsher]

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I could care less if a "good" player limps in that spot because a GOOD player would have pushed from the beginning. They'd be a total idiot to limp in this position knowing I'll push and they'll risk getting eliminated here.

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So if I have AA and I knew you'd push if I limped I'm a total idiot because I'm risking getting eliminated here?

Given the condescending nature of your replies, I'd have expected less stupid comments.

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Like I said, please forgive me since I haven't slept yet and played pretty much all evening/early morning. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] If you have AA UTG here and limp, then sure, you'll be able to exploit me by limping since you'll know I'll push, but you're risking elimination here more than you think. If I have 2 live cards, which I probably will have since it'll be very hard for me to get another combination of Ax, you have a decent shot of being eliminated. Sure, you'll double up most of the times, but it's a pretty big risk for you when I push over the top of you when you could have just done it yourself and have almost no risk on busting.

Here's a sample hand:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=369283
pokenum -h ad ac - ts 4h
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ad 1475654 86.18 231317 13.51 5333 0.31 0.863
Ts 4h 231317 13.51 1475654 86.18 5333 0.31 0.137

or

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=416791
pokenum -h ad ac - js 9h
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ad 1412831 82.51 294862 17.22 4611 0.27 0.826
Js 9h 294862 17.22 1412831 82.51 4611 0.27 0.174


Both hands were just examples, but still, you're taking on a risk that I'm not by limping here.

[TheUsher]

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Well maybe you should start caring, or maybe not. I dont know which is better.

If I limp with AA there and if I'm very positive that the short stack will fold hoping I bust out to your reraise, I stand to gain a fair bit of equity

around 5% if you push any two. and you stand to lose a fair bit as well.

The important fact is that the limpers hand is not any random two. Limper ha extra information about his hand, which you dont.

Even if the short stack calls, I might not gain much equity, but you would sure lose some with that play.

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We're talking lots of if's already and you're not going to get AA here often enough to profit much by exploiting my tendency to push over a limper here. What's the difference of a limper here UTG and someone that mini-raises?

[UMTerp]

OK, here's my attempt at some longhand math.

You're pushing.

For simplicity, I'm assuming the Button folds, but it's safe to say that if he calls, you're in bad shape.

SB is calling with 22+, AX, KXs, any two nine or higher. This makes up 458 of the 1326 (0.3454) possible hold'em hands.

If SB calls, BB folds any two. If SB folds, BB calls any two.

If any of the above are way off, let me know, but I think they are reasonable.

According to PokerStove, 88 is 57.723% against SB's range. Also, 88 is 69.169% against two random cards.

Case 1: SB calls (happens 0.3454 of the time):

57.723% of the time:
175
3370 (you) - 33.26% by ICM
1910
4545

42.277% of the time you'll have 0% equity.

Case 2: SB folds, BB calls (happens 0.6546 of the time):

If you win (69.169% of the time):
0
2160 (you) - 30.14% by ICM
1910
5930

If you lose (30.831% of the time):
1100
1060 (you) - 17.00% by ICM
1910
5930

So, if you push, your equity = 0.3454 (0.57723 * 0.3326) + 0.6546 (0.69169 * 0.3014 + 0.30831 * 0.17) = 23.709%. And it's really slightly lower than that because I ignored the times that button had a monster.

I showed earlier that BOTH fold and call/fold are higher than that. I'll admit this is very very close, hence the long discussion. I think it's a slight leak if you consider this a "clear" push though.

[microbet]

I think limping is probably a good move here with AA and maybe KK, but big stack cannot put you on those hands because you limp.

The only way he could would be if he knew you very very very well, but if that's the case you could be screwing with him anyway. And if he does know you that well, he would be advertising that he can be exploited here.