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#31
05-13-2005, 04:21 PM
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Re: 5/10 NL, 55 in the SB
The problem is that he doesn't have anything except a pair, and he currently doesn't have the correct odds to call a 100 BB with his pair and flush draw. This is the only math that matters now. If you use the logic that "I got a great flop, so now I have to play the hand." you will lose money. He did get a great flop, but the villian made it VERY expensive to draw to his flush. This is purely a math problem, he clearly doesn't have the best hand right now, there is no more betting to be done and he has decide if the math works to justify a call. He has to call $1,000 into a pot of $1,550 right now, so he's getting 1.5 to 1. Assuming the villian has a set,these are clearly not the right odds. Hero needs to be getting about 2 to 1 to make the call. So the decision becomes if he thinks that the maniac in the SB will overcall and put another $725 into the pot that hero can win. Now hero has to put in $1,000 to win $2,275, so the 2-1 call looks fine. The maniac however will not call 100% of the time, so we need to discount our pot odds. We need the expected pot to be $2,000, so the maniac needs to put in his $725 at least 62% of the time for this to be a profitable call. The only conceivable hands that the decent player would push with that hero are ahead of is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but much money has been lost making bad calls with draws hoping that the villian has the one hand you could be ahead of.
Runner 
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#32
05-13-2005, 04:36 PM
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Re: 5/10 NL, 55 in the SB
[ QUOTE ]
much money has been lost making bad calls with draws hoping that the villian has the one hand you could be ahead of. Runner [/ QUOTE ] Ain't that the truth.
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#33
05-13-2005, 07:10 PM
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Re: 5/10 NL, 55 in the SB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] much money has been lost making bad calls with draws hoping that the villian has the one hand you could be ahead of. Runner [/ QUOTE ] Ain't that the truth. [/ QUOTE ] agreed, but that is obviously not the case here with these two opponents.
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#34
05-13-2005, 07:16 PM
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*RESULTS*
I am a fish.
well, not really, its just that these two donks decided to actually have hands this time. I called, SB behind me called. SB: 66 for btm set. MP: A8s for top two pair. yuck. fortunately, I saw not one, but two clean spades come off before seeing their cards. given the opponents, their range of hands, I think I played it ok, but it is a close one.
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#35
05-13-2005, 07:53 PM
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Re: 5/10 NL, 55 in the SB
fun with statistics: (calculated on the flop)
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=954354 pokenum -h as 2s - ah 8h - 6h 6d -- 6s ad 8s Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s 6s Ad cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As 2s 279 30.90 622 68.88 2 0.22 0.310 Ah 8h 118 13.07 783 86.71 2 0.22 0.132 6d 6h 504 55.81 399 44.19 0 0.00 0.558 and that seems like the worst case scenario, except of course this: pokenum -h as 2s - 7s 9s - 6h 6d -- 6s ad 8s Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s 6s Ad cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As 2s 161 17.83 742 82.17 0 0.00 0.178 9s 7s 236 26.14 667 73.86 0 0.00 0.261 6d 6h 506 56.04 397 43.96 0 0.00 0.560 given the chances of these and other, better, scenarios, the call looks perfectly fine.
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