Next SnG tool - the Luckometer

KJ o · #1 05-10-2005, 10:11 AM

Here's that final(?) SnG tool I'd like to see as a complement to PokerTracker, SnG Tracker and eastbay's pushometer: The Luckometer.

The Luckometer would meassure your luck in $ in hands starting from the point where everyone remaining in the hand except one is all-in.

Example:
Four players left in a $10+1, everyone has 2000. UTG folds, I have KTs on the button with blinds 200/400. I push and get called by A8o from the SB.

I have (roughly) 46% chance of winning, leaving me with a $EV of 40$, and a 54% chance of going broke, leaving me with $0, if MY ICM calculation is correct. Thus, my $EV is $18.40.

If I win, luck netted me $21.60, and if I lose, bad luck netted me -$18.40.

If I make this calculation for all hands in a tourney and sum the resulting "luck", I think this will give a reasonable aproximation of my actual luck, with two important caveats.

1. This measures only luck after I am actually called. One could argue that if my opponents both had crapy hands and folded, I'd be even more lucky. That is of course a very important factor, but I think that meassuring one luck factor, while imperfect, is significantly better than messuring none.

2. It is quite possible for me to be more unlucky than the money at stake overall, which is of course simply wrong. Without doing any kind if research, I would guess that that isn't a very important factor over a large set of tournaments.

Has anyone done this analysis over a fairly large set of tourneys? Is it meaningfull? My guess is that this figure together with ROI figures would yield a significantly more reliable result after any x tourneys than just the ROI figure.

Any takers to implement this in an automated manner?

dfscott · #2 05-10-2005, 10:24 AM

I am so disappointed. I thought you had created a tool to measure how lucky I am. I was really excited about this. I could check it before I sat down -- if I was very lucky, I would play the $200s, if I was just kinda lucky, I'd play my regular buy-in. And if I was unlucky, I would just download porn.

tminus · #3 05-10-2005, 05:34 PM

probably one of the funniest posts ive seen at this site

Phil Van Sexton · #4 05-10-2005, 10:48 AM

I have written this already. I ran it for your screenname.

The answer is 42.

spentrent · #5 05-10-2005, 11:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I have written this already. I ran it for your screenname.

The answer is 42.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you see the movie? I saw it last night and left feeling a mixture of satisfaction and dismay. The "So Long and Thanks for All the Fish" song was perfect.

Did you notice the BBC TV version of Marvin lurking in line on Vogsphere?

Phil Van Sexton · #6 05-10-2005, 11:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have written this already. I ran it for your screenname.

The answer is 42.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you see the movie? I saw it last night and left feeling a mixture of satisfaction and dismay. The "So Long and Thanks for All the Fish" song was perfect.

Did you notice the BBC TV version of Marvin lurking in line on Vogsphere?

[/ QUOTE ]

Haven't seen it yet, so I may have to wait for dvd. I don't get to the movies often and when I do its usually with the wife. Sci-fi is a tough sell with her (clearly she will be overruled for Sith, of course).

the shadow · #7 05-10-2005, 11:03 AM

Already been done. See Poker Academy Pro.

I like the bot simulations (I'm still -EV to a couple after 10k+ hands), but the luckometer is of little use, at least to me.

The Shadow

Ryendal · #8 05-10-2005, 12:03 PM

Did you find something useful in POKER ACADEMY PRO ?

KJ o · #9 05-10-2005, 12:29 PM

From what I understand, that doesn't do what I want at all.

I want to run a hand history or thousand through a piece of software that will tell me how lucky I was in my all-in confrontations. Is the software you suggested doing anything like that or do you have commission plugging their stuff? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

the shadow · #10 05-10-2005, 01:10 PM

1. I get no commission. I recommend what I like.

2. While you can't load your results into Poker Academy's utility, I found the utility to be essentially worthless. Maybe that's relevant to whether you might find a similar utility to be worth it.

3. The statistic of how lucky you were in the ST in your all-in confrontations is irrelevant. The meaningful question is how lucky you should have been -- that is, were the odds favorable when the money went into the pot? That you can do with Poker Stove or Two Dimes.

The Shadow (who, in the interests of full disclosure, reveals that he gets a 10% commission on the sale of all Poker Stove and Two Dimes programs [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])