I'm a bit loose

[J.R.]

you can't have it both ways with respect to gaining/losing bets on the flop

[Lost Wages]

At the time of the Hero's decision there are 7SB in the pot. He stands to gain 1BB additional or lose 2.5BB when he pairs the turn and lose 1SB when he doesn't.

Lost Wages

[kurosh]

You're counting the flop in one, but not in the other. When he has overs, I will get called on the river a significant portion of the time.

[Lost Wages]

When he has overs, I will get called on the river a significant portion of the time.

OK, tell me what percent and then we can do the math.

Lost Wages