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#32
05-06-2005, 01:14 AM
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Re: I like this...PVS on Lvl. 4 when well equipped.
[ QUOTE ]
Ok I freaking ran it. Against a range like (22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs). It's actually slightly +EV to push here. Note that this range is actually quite loose, as most people will fold quite a few of the above hands from the blinds, especially in the 55s. Against this range its practically breakeven, with a .1% advantage towards pushing...however if you tighten it up just a bit, it becomes more seriously +EV. This range (44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+), makes it +.6% EV, which is pretty signifigant. One thing that eastbay's program has helped me with, is that I seem to intuitively know whether a push will be EV or not without even having to enter it anymore. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, I get +44.3 CEV for your tighter range. I haven't run the looser range but it looks like it would be -CEV. I also suspect that when I run the ICM calcs I may get a negative result even for the tighter range. 
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#33
05-06-2005, 01:36 AM
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Re: I like this...PVS on Lvl. 4 when well equipped.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ok I freaking ran it. Against a range like (22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs). It's actually slightly +EV to push here. Note that this range is actually quite loose, as most people will fold quite a few of the above hands from the blinds, especially in the 55s. Against this range its practically breakeven, with a .1% advantage towards pushing...however if you tighten it up just a bit, it becomes more seriously +EV. This range (44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+), makes it +.6% EV, which is pretty signifigant. One thing that eastbay's program has helped me with, is that I seem to intuitively know whether a push will be EV or not without even having to enter it anymore. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, I get +44.3 CEV for your tighter range. I haven't run the looser range but it looks like it would be -CEV. I also suspect that when I run the ICM calcs I may get a negative result even for the tighter range. [/ QUOTE ] My ICM cals have given me +0.27%. I have made the most generous assumptions along the way (rounded everything up, assumed it was slightly more likely that button would call than that SB or BB would). Since it's actually more likely, probably, that one of the blinds will call than that the Button will, it seems to me that this play is ICM equity-neutral given the "tighter" range. Considering that each successful blind steal uses up some of your FE, and that you are likely to have several much better spots, I still think folding is clearly the right play. But I do retract my initial "horrible push" reaction. And yes, I am surprised by the results. I still think it would be a horrible push in the $22s/$33s, where the calling range will be wider.
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#34
05-06-2005, 08:45 AM
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Re: I like this...PVS on Lvl. 4 when well equipped.
[ QUOTE ]
My ICM cals have given me +0.27%. I have made the most generous assumptions along the way (rounded everything up, assumed it was slightly more likely that button would call than that SB or BB would). Since it's actually more likely, probably, that one of the blinds will call than that the Button will, it seems to me that this play is ICM equity-neutral given the "tighter" range. Considering that each successful blind steal uses up some of your FE, and that you are likely to have several much better spots, I still think folding is clearly the right play. But I do retract my initial "horrible push" reaction. And yes, I am surprised by the results. I still think it would be a horrible push in the $22s/$33s, where the calling range will be wider. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't realize that my 86 hand would generate any discussion. I only posted it because it happened as I was reading this thread about my strategy for level 4. You have to remember that I only have 605 chips. The point of my post to Voltron was "be ready for level 5". 605 is not getting it done. I need to steal before the blinds hit me again in 4 hands. This seems like a good enough spot as any. I don't always push here with 86o, but I push a lot. Remember that ICM doesn't account for the blinds. It doesn't realize that the BB is 16% of my stack, and soon to be 33%. I need to make something happen, and I need to do it soon. If the ICM is neutral, I'm still all over it because I think it would be +$EV if the ICM understood my situation better. One thing that is not obvious in my post is that the blinds go up to 100/200 on the next hand. This changes "push a lot" to "push even if dealt a Skip and a Draw Four". I mentioned this in this post about pushing T2o UTG. I said: [ QUOTE ] It should go without saying that I would've pushed with any 2 on any of the previous 3 hands if it were folded to me in order to avoid this predicament. [/ QUOTE ] Clearly, I wasn't kidding. Here is a post from strassa on a simliar topic. I feel like I quote him in every post, but it's only fair since I learned all my maniac-ness from him.
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#35
05-06-2005, 08:50 AM
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Re: I like this...PVS on Lvl. 4 when well equipped.
Ssshhh Phil don't let all the secrets out of the bag now. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
Edit: I bet knowledge of this subject alone would make many here increase their ROI by a sizable amount.
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#37
05-06-2005, 03:32 PM
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Re: I like this...PVS on Lvl. 4 when well equipped.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] My ICM cals have given me +0.27%. I have made the most generous assumptions along the way (rounded everything up, assumed it was slightly more likely that button would call than that SB or BB would). Since it's actually more likely, probably, that one of the blinds will call than that the Button will, it seems to me that this play is ICM equity-neutral given the "tighter" range. Considering that each successful blind steal uses up some of your FE, and that you are likely to have several much better spots, I still think folding is clearly the right play. But I do retract my initial "horrible push" reaction. And yes, I am surprised by the results. I still think it would be a horrible push in the $22s/$33s, where the calling range will be wider. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't realize that my 86 hand would generate any discussion. I only posted it because it happened as I was reading this thread about my strategy for level 4. You have to remember that I only have 605 chips. The point of my post to Voltron was "be ready for level 5". 605 is not getting it done. I need to steal before the blinds hit me again in 4 hands. This seems like a good enough spot as any. I don't always push here with 86o, but I push a lot. Remember that ICM doesn't account for the blinds. It doesn't realize that the BB is 16% of my stack, and soon to be 33%. I need to make something happen, and I need to do it soon. If the ICM is neutral, I'm still all over it because I think it would be +$EV if the ICM understood my situation better. One thing that is not obvious in my post is that the blinds go up to 100/200 on the next hand. This changes "push a lot" to "push even if dealt a Skip and a Draw Four". I mentioned this in this post about pushing T2o UTG. I said: [ QUOTE ] It should go without saying that I would've pushed with any 2 on any of the previous 3 hands if it were folded to me in order to avoid this predicament. [/ QUOTE ] Clearly, I wasn't kidding. Here is a post from strassa on a simliar topic. I feel like I quote him in every post, but it's only fair since I learned all my maniac-ness from him. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, I'm basically convinced, especially as far as the $55s go. The fact that the blinds are going up next hand definitely helps me like the push. I dunno about the T2o hand in your link. Maybe you're right on that one too, but I don't know if I can handle that much learning in one day. As for the AJs...I've always agreed it's a clear push. I actually made a bunch of posts in that thread, including this one, which makes an argument that still seems reasonable to me.
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