Lets discuss this hand - from 350K on Stars

[Che]

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this is well said. The value of gaining 1750 is far less than that of losing over 11K.

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Well said? Maybe.

Illogical? Definitely.

Rethink that statement. How much do you risk and how much do you win?

Later,
Che

[DireWolf]

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at 5% equity you make 1750 chips every time you call here. If knowing that you theorhetically made 1750 chips by calling here outweighs the cost of 11K chips.... Well, I just don't see that gain being worth that risk. Strassa, I understand your craps shoot argument, but what of Sklansky's opportunity cost arguement? That is, by taking this deal and losing, we now have less chips when we find a much better situation later. I don't think tourney poker is about taking every slighly + gamble.

Consider this - Almost any time you find yourself in the CO, you odds of inducing a fold with an AI bet outweight the risk of being BOTH called AND beaten. But you wouldn't advocate doing that, would you? Use some patience. Better situations will come up.

CSC

That said, your arguements are causing me to think/re-evaluate, and for that I thank you.

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this is well said. The value of gaining 1750 is far less than that of losing over 11K.

-Scott

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I don't think you can compare the 1750 with losing 11k. You would have to say,
"this is well said. The value of gaining ~30,000 is far less than that of losing over 11K."

The gain of 1750 already takes into account losing the 11k, i think. Or am i completely wrong?

[Che]

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And Yes much of the field is short. But I'm not trying to steal against half of the remaining field with less than 5bb. I'm trying to steal against the 3 players to my left, two of which, had very very healthy stacks of over 175K and played very well.

I think stacks that much larger than mine will more liberally call my steals when I have 3BB than when I have 5bb. The push with 3BB looks more desperate than with 5BBs so big stack will tend to call with a wider range of hands.

This is not a trivial consideration IMO.

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This is a valid point. Like the image things I mentioned in another post, it doesn't carry much weight, but it could be enough to swing a very close decision (and this decision is at least pretty close with the range I give the raiser).

Later,
Che

[Lurshy]

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Quote:
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this is well said. The value of gaining 1750 is far less than that of losing over 11K.


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Well said? Maybe.

Illogical? Definitely.

Rethink that statement. How much do you risk and how much do you win?

Later,
Che

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Che is correct. They are comparing long term average upside, to short term potential loss. Keeping things in the same time scale, you are risking 11K with a potential upside of 34K

[dmk]

The +EV argument has already been proposed, so I'll save you another post on it.

Here's what it can do for you later in the tournament:

Lets say there's a good shot at you 2xing up (AA in the BB w/ someone pushing)

you have 7BB after folding this hand, so a 2x up gets you to 15BB (because of SB/antes)
you have 11BB after calling and winning, so a 2x up gets you to 23BB...
you have 5BB after calling and losing, so a 2x up gets you to 11BB...

By looking ahead, it appears you are risking 2BB to potentially pick up an additional 8BB if you double up. Not sure if this makes any sense...?

Just to re-iterate MLG/Strassa's points - the blinds are very high, and you need to double up at least 2 or 3 times to make the FT. You have a +EV situation and you can't pass it up. You'll be blinded down if you're looking for a better than 5% edge.

Let me ask a question: Do you call w/ 87s? If so, you should have called here. There isn't a large enough loss in equity between these 2 hands to justify folding one and not the other.

[SoBeDude]

Just to re-iterate MLG/Strassa's points - the blinds are very high, and you need to double up at least 2 or 3 times to make the FT. You have a +EV situation and you can't pass it up. You'll be blinded down if you're looking for a better than 5% edge.

Oh? I think that pushing with 5BBs on the button or CO with ANY TWO has a higher edge than 5%, to pick up the blinds and antes (which are significant especially in relation to my stack) without a fight.

-Scott

[Pat Southern]

Isnt that somewhat of a contradiction to your argument for folding, since it reduces your FE? If your folding equity is still high enough after losing this hand where pushing with any 2 from the CO is profitable, then calling and losing obviously cant hurt your FE that much.

[dmk]

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Isnt that somewhat of a contradiction to your argument for folding, since it reduces your FE? If your folding equity is still high enough after losing this hand where pushing with any 2 from the CO is profitable, then calling and losing obviously cant hurt your FE that much.

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Indeed.

[JasonP530]

I dont think it is an autocall Scott, but I think you have to call. You will be much better off if you have 40k in chips 2/3 of the time and 85k chips the other 1/3. I dont think you have as little folding equity as you think you do with 40k in chips, plus you are going to be in good stealing position for the next few hands when the blinds pass. I dont think it is necessary to panic here, but since youre going to need to get lucky at some point, I would rather try to get lucky here, where the cost isnt that great(not all your chips, and with correct odds), then possibly raising from an earlier position and getting lucky for all your chips.