Question about Extracting Value

[Phil Van Sexton]

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I'm not sure I follow...would you mind either

1) Explaining more thoroughly
2) Referring me to a thread on implied odds in NL

Thanks. (Not trying to be difficult; just trying to improve)

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Pot odds are simple. Pot=240. 40 to call, so 240:40 or 6:1.

This would be enough if you only had 40 chips left or this was the river.

However, there is a lot more betting to come. If you flop a set, you will make much more than 240 on average. Coming up with this number is tricky. For one thing, you could flop a set and still lose. You could also flop and set and watch everyone fold.

I'm going to make a up number: 500. That's roughly the size of the pot plus 1/2 your opponent's stack. I refuse to get into a discussion over the accuracy of this number, so don't bother questioning it.

So, if you hit you set, you will win 500 chips on average. If you miss your set, you will lose 0 (I hope). Therefore, your implied odds are 500:40 or about 12.5:1.

Odds of flopping a set at 8:1, so this is a clear call. You won't hit a set often, but you will be paid off huge when you do. If you miss, you won't lose any additional money.

Of course, the key is determining the likehood that your opponent will give up his entire stack. This is why you are praying that he does have AA. If he is bluffing with J4, he isn't going to pay you off, and therefore you won't win that 500 chips on average.

It helps that there are a few opponents in the pot. At least one of them will lose a lot of chips here if you hit.

This is not an exact science. When playing pocket pairs, many people just use a 5% rule. If the call is less than 5% of your stack, then call. If your opponent's stack is smaller than yours, use his stack size. If you were in better position or had a better hand (ie 88), you could go as high as 10%.

While I'm here, I'll mention reverse implied odds. In the 22 example, your pot odds were 6:1, but your implied odds are 12.5:1. There are many cases in NL where your implied odds are actually worse than your pot odds (ie reversed).

Let's say you had A5o instead of 22. If you flop an Ace, you much will you win? Well, if you flop an Ace and no one has an Ace, you will probably just win the pot and maybe a little more. Let's say 300. You aren't going to take someone's stack if an Ace flops.

If someone does have an Ace, it's probably better than yours, so you will probably lose money on average. Let's say -200. They might also have a better hand like a set or 2 pair.

When you flop an Ace, let's say its 50/50 that someone else has a better Ace or a better hand. So you average win will be 100 (ie 300 - 200).

For simplicity, let's say you'll fold if you don't flop an Ace.

Therefore, your implied odds are 100:40 or 2.5:1.

Your chances of flopping an Ace are 4:1, I think. Therefore, you must fold.

4:1 looks good compared to your pot odds (6:1), but not according to your implied odds (2.5:1). Therefore, you should fold A5o here.

[By the way, every number I used in this example is wrong, so don't bother correcting me.]

[Phoenix1010]

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Why lead into the pre-flop raiser here? I would never raise to 70 pf in her position, but if I did, I would probably be continuing post-flop. What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

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You would lead into the raiser because they've already represented a big hand, so you're hoping that they raise you on the flop, thinking you caught something like middle pair, to protect their hand. This move is player dependent however. Against the majority of low buy-in players, it is much better to check and let them keep the lead. Many of them will NEVER check a ragged board after raising preflop, and you've got a near-perfect trapping situation. They will also raise with a lot of hands preflop at these levels, so they don't necessarily have a big pair that you can extract value from. They will fold unpaired high cards if you bet into them, they will bet unpaired high cards, if you check to them. They may even continue betting ace high on the turn. Checking the flop gives more value in the most situations.

If SB has a 9, there are only three cards that could fall on the river to give you a scare, and his money is going to the middle regardless of whether you raise the turn or river. The minimum you're going to win here is doubling through SB's stack, see if you can get a little bit more out of the other players in the hand before you take down the SB.

If SB doesn't have a 9, the worst thing you could do here is raise. Both blinds betting and raising each other on a raggedy paired board is going to send everyone else in the hand running, even if they have AA. SB is most certainly not going to call a raise from the BB if he doesn't have the goods. However, if you just call, there's a good chance he will bluff into you on the river thinking he can push you off. Calling gives more value in the more situations.

-Phoenix

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I follow...would you mind either

1) Explaining more thoroughly
2) Referring me to a thread on implied odds in NL

Thanks. (Not trying to be difficult; just trying to improve)

[/ QUOTE ]


Pot odds are simple. Pot=240. 40 to call, so 240:40 or 6:1.

This would be enough if you only had 40 chips left or this was the river.

However, there is a lot more betting to come. If you flop a set, you will make much more than 240 on average. Coming up with this number is tricky. For one thing, you could flop a set and still lose. You could also flop and set and watch everyone fold.

I'm going to make a up number: 500. That's roughly the size of the pot plus 1/2 your opponent's stack. I refuse to get into a discussion over the accuracy of this number, so don't bother questioning it.

So, if you hit you set, you will win 500 chips on average. If you miss your set, you will lose 0 (I hope). Therefore, your implied odds are 500:40 or about 12.5:1.

Odds of flopping a set at 8:1, so this is a clear call. You won't hit a set often, but you will be paid off huge when you do. If you miss, you won't lose any additional money.

Of course, the key is determining the likehood that your opponent will give up his entire stack. This is why you are praying that he does have AA. If he is bluffing with J4, he isn't going to pay you off, and therefore you won't win that 500 chips on average.

It helps that there are a few opponents in the pot. At least one of them will lose a lot of chips here if you hit.

This is not an exact science. When playing pocket pairs, many people just use a 5% rule. If the call is less than 5% of your stack, then call. If your opponent's stack is smaller than yours, use his stack size. If you were in better position or had a better hand (ie 88), you could go as high as 10%.

While I'm here, I'll mention reverse implied odds. In the 22 example, your pot odds were 6:1, but your implied odds are 12.5:1. There are many cases in NL where your implied odds are actually worse than your pot odds (ie reversed).

Let's say you had A5o instead of 22. If you flop an Ace, you much will you win? Well, if you flop an Ace and no one has an Ace, you will probably just win the pot and maybe a little more. Let's say 300. You aren't going to take someone's stack if an Ace flops.

If someone does have an Ace, it's probably better than yours, so you will probably lose money on average. Let's say -200. They might also have a better hand like a set or 2 pair.

When you flop an Ace, let's say its 50/50 that someone else has a better Ace or a better hand. So you average win will be 100 (ie 300 - 200).

For simplicity, let's say you'll fold if you don't flop an Ace.

Therefore, your implied odds are 100:40 or 2.5:1.

Your chances of flopping an Ace are 4:1, I think. Therefore, you must fold.

4:1 looks good compared to your pot odds (6:1), but not according to your implied odds (2.5:1). Therefore, you should fold A5o here.

[By the way, every number I used in this example is wrong, so don't bother correcting me.]

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Excellent....

-Gryph