When is 25s profitable?

[shmahappens]

flush: (11/50)*(10/49)*(48/48)*3
straight: (8/50)*(4/49)*(48/48)*3
twopr: (6/50)*(3/49)*(48/48)*3
Combine these= .19592, 1/.19592=5.1, isn't that a 1:5 shot?
Or are these calculations wrong?

[Grisgra]

Math? It's Friday afternoon, I can't do any stinking math. Just that 5:1 seemed high to me, but hey, maybe it's correct bcs you're okay with flopping draws. Just seemed way too optimistic to me, especially with the 2-gapper there.

I know the odds of flopping a made hand (like two pair) are around 1 in 20, but maybe the odds of the others add up -- a quick googling puts the odds of flopping a flush draw at 10%.

So, in sum:

1) I was a stupid ass for questioning the 5:1 odds for making an OESD straight draw, flush draw, or two pair or better. Maybe that's right. It's at least, quite close. But:

2) Almost all of your odds come from the flush draw, which you're only 2:1 to make by the river anyway, and if a four of your suit comes, you're boned big time. So even though I'm a stupid ass, it's still a horrible, horrible call! The odds of having a made hand by the river are only around 18:1 (roughly -- you hit a draw 1/5 times, and complete that draw and it stands up around 1/4 times, and there's the two-pair trips possibility in there somewhere. Because we know how strong a hand 52 is when you're shootin' for two pair against five opponents.)

Ugh!

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
When the other guy has it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Beautiful.

[shmahappens]

Rediculously loose/weak table with a couple LAGs that I have been running over. PF raiser is 45/19/1.56
Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $15.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

[elindauer]

Let's talk a little more about the flops we can see, and what each of those flops is worth.

1) we flop a four flush

probability: 9/50 * 8/49 * 41/48 * 3 = .075
value: hmmm... I'm just going to guess at these, I've never really thought about the game this way before. You're going to make a flush 1 time in 3, but sometimes it won't be good. Let's say you take 30% of the preflop pot. On postflop bets, you'll probably be making some on the flop bets, giving some back on the turn, and making a lot on the river bets. I'll hand wave and say you make 1 BB postflop on average after flopping a 4-flush. Thoughts?

final value of 4-flush flops: 4.75 BB

2. We flop a flush

probability: 9/50 * 8/49 * 7/48 = .004
value: Another diamond and we're screwed of course... Maybe 60% of the preflop equity goes to us, and we make 4 BB postflop. Who knows. Call it 10BB.

3. flop OESD

probability: 8/40 * 4/49 * 40/48 * 3 = .033
value: similar to flush draw but we lose a little more often despite making a straight. Call it 4BB.

4. straight

probability: 8/50 * 4/49 * 8/48 * 3 = .007

value: huge. We hold up much more often than a flopped flush. Probably 90% of the preflop pot goes to us and a ton of postflop bets. Say, 13 BB.

5. exactly 2 pair

probability: 6/50 * 3/49 * 44/48 * 3 = .02
value: pretty solid. Probably comparable to a flopped flush in value. We're vulnerable to the board pairing and flushes. Call it 10 BB.

6. flopped trips

probability: 6/50 * 2/49 * 44/48 * 3 = .013
value: great. Maybe 11 big bets.

7. flopped house

probability: 6/50 * 5/49 * 4/48 = .001
value: monster. 14BB.




Add it up...

.075 * 4.75 + .004 * 10 + .033 * 4 + .007 * 13 + .02 * 10 + .013 * 11 + .001 * 14 = .98 BB


So we're already just about break even on the call, and I haven't added in any value for flopped gutshot draws and flopped pairs drawing to 2-pair / trips. With a loose passive table taking a flop 8-handed for a raise, there's no doubt you can squeeze value out of these hands as well, and you'll flop 1 pair quite often. Is your hand worth .5 BB on an KT5 board? How about on a T62 board? You're going to see a lot of flops that look like these, so if you play them profitably, you're going to make money on this hand.


This all assumes of course that the blinds come along and you see the flop for 2 bets. In that case, you can call. Note that a lot of the value comes from the flopped flush and straight draws, so you cannot call with offsuit 75, and certainly not with real garbage like J6.


Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi elindauer:

I don't like this call. Part of the reason for this is that if you flop a draw and continue, it is very unlikely that you can win if you make a pair. So you're putting in extra money preflop with limited opportunites to win.

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]


Hi Mason,

I'm curious to hear if you still feel this way now that I've put some more concrete numbers to this. It's not clear that you ever need to win with just one pair to make calling here profitable, with the important caveat that you see the flop 8-handed for 2 bets the vast majority of the time.

One thing that I may be underestimating in my math though is the probability that someone holds a higher diamond draw, which would really kill your equity.

Thanks.
Eric

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
1) we flop a four flush
probability: 9/50 * 8/49 * 41/48 * 3 = .075

[/ QUOTE ]
one of our flush cards *
one of our remaining flush cards *
any card left that isn't of our flush *
what?