A hand played by somebody else

[NLSoldier]

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if this player capped pre-flop with 99 why cant he cap pre-flop with 66 or 55?

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he sure could...but he wouldn't bet the river. he'd check call
-Barron

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he would check/call playing the board with 6 high?

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now thats a good point. but i dont think he'll end up w/ 66 and below often enough (capped pf) to make it a good river call.

-Barron

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LOL

[DcifrThs]

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if this player capped pre-flop with 99 why cant he cap pre-flop with 66 or 55?

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he sure could...but he wouldn't bet the river. he'd check call
-Barron

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he would check/call playing the board with 6 high?

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now thats a good point. but i dont think he'll end up w/ 66 and below often enough (capped pf) to make it a good river call.

-Barron

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LOL

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maybe i should read the entire thing again before making stupid statements.

this would be the only feasible reason to call the river bet.

the distribution of capper's hands however, are likely to be so vastly weighted upward that i'd tend to discount 66 and below slightly. when i was first shown this hand the first thing i said was "that river bet looks like unknown is saying: call me with that ace high"

-Barron

[Senor Choppy]

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90-100%


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Losing 90% of the time, the call would be +EV (if he won outright the other 10%).

[DcifrThs]

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90-100%


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Losing 90% of the time, the call would be +EV (if he won outright the other 10%).

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of that 10% of the time, maybe 10% would be outright won and the other 90% would be chopped.

-Barron

[stoxtrader]

I am hero. SB capper is not an unknown to me, he has a PFR of 21%.

here is a log of our IM conversation (we were not chatting at the time, and I approximated our chat in a PM to BK and he gave me this exact log, so it's from his IM).

I just looked up the log of the convo. I'm fine with your aproximation of it...but if youw ant the real convo:
bk (7:56:21 PM): why you pay of ace high
stox(7:56:53 PM): cause i was getting 10-1or whateve closing the action
bk (7:57:07 PM): praying to chop
stox (7:57:20 PM): y, or snap AQs or AJs
stox (7:57:28 PM): agreed its dubious
bk (7:57:30 PM): no
bk (7:57:34 PM): board was 8877x
bk (7:57:37 PM): any ace chos
bk (7:57:40 PM): chops
stox (7:57:56 PM): right. good point
bk (7:58:16 PM): so yeah just vb play imo
bk (7:58:19 PM): wanted to let you knwo
bk (7:58:35 PM): just as help
stox(7:58:37 PM): ur prolly right
bk (7:58:47 PM): nah that ones not even close
bk (7:58:51 PM): he capped in the sb
stox (8:11:16 PM): I looked at the hand again. it is close. sry. i disagree.
bk (8:17:42 PM): i'm going to post if you dont mind
stox (8:17:48 PM): not at all.
stox(8:20:01 PM): just want to point out in the past you have been sure, and claimed not close. when that is in fact exactly the case.
bk (8:20:17 PM): that's why i want to post it
bk (8:20:20 PM): james agrees fwiw
bk (8:20:34 PM): i could def be wrong
stox (8:20:39 PM): go ahead, i can defend myself.


the turn call is easy, I'm getting 8:1, if all 6 of my outs are clean it is a 6.7:1 shot, and i have the best hand some of the time. (even 10% here is pertinent).

yes, BK is left to act behind and I may have to pay 2 bets to see the river, but how many hands that beat me would BK have slowplayed the flop with given the large size of the pot. AA is possible, but I have an A. 77 might slowplay, but would BK 3bet me with that PF?

The river call, if a mistake, is at least close in my opinion. I did not ask for this hand to be posted, and don't feel i played it particularly badly, either.

[DcifrThs]

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I did not ask for this hand to be posted, and don't feel i played it particularly badly, either.

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i dont think you played it badly at all. i just dont think you needed to call the river.

i pulled my %s out of my ass and i think hoping to chop 8% and win 2% is really optimistic.

however, i do acknowledge i didn't see the pf cap as 66 and below betting the river and thus that alters my opinion slightly now.

bk was indeed wrong about the closeness, as am i.

it is close. move those win/chop %s around a bit and yo have a call.

-Barron