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#31
04-05-2005, 08:24 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
[ QUOTE ]
From other thread: Bos/NYY Ov 9' Adding: Parlay: SFG -158 & Minn -154; 1 unit to win 1.693 at Pinnacle. Two pitchers (Schmidt & Santana) that may be unhittable today. Separately, too much chalk, but when parlayed the payoff is reasonable and I think I have more than a 55% chance of collecting. Also playing LA/SF under 7' +102 at Pinnacle. [/ QUOTE ] Adding one play: ChC -127 & ChC/Ari ov 9'-110 parlay wagering 1 unit to win 2.412 at BetJamaica. Maddux is more consistent than Ortiz who is having trouble so far this year. This is one of those fairly rare situations where I'm either going to win both or lose both. If Ortiz surprises me enough to handle the Cubs it will be a low scoring game. So I'm taking the shot at the parlay instead of the two separate straight bets. That's all for tonight. Good luck to everyone. 
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#32
04-05-2005, 08:39 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
[ QUOTE ]
Nevertheless, the better play in terms of EV is to make each bet separately. [/ QUOTE ] How so? Here's my thinking...two plays: A [-158] and B [-154] wagered straight would risk 2 units to win .63 + .65 units. Lose both, -2.0; split, -.35; win both, +1.28. The 2-teamer risks 1 unit to win 1.69 units. Since they are both worthy plays and I would play them both, why not parlay? Selective parlaying is the only way I get "creative" in sports. I flat bet everything.
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#33
04-05-2005, 09:52 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
cold day thus far...Houston goes down 7-3...
YTD 3-3
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#34
04-06-2005, 12:18 AM
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Re: MLB 4/5
lord have mercy on me....0-3 for the day as the cubs lose 5-4...OUCH
YTD 3-4
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#35
04-06-2005, 01:27 AM
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Re: MLB 4/5
Recap for today:
Bos ov 9' L 1 unit Parlay SF&Min W 1.69 units LA/SF un 7' W 1.02 units Parlay ChC & ov 9' L 1 unit Today 2-2 +.71 unit YTD 4-6 -1.34 units
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#36
04-06-2005, 07:53 AM
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Re: MLB 4/5
Yeah, the numbers work out. I was thinking they charge extra on the parlay, but according to my calculations, the teams are expected to win both games 37.13% based on the original lines, and you only need 37.17% for the parlay to be profitable. In other words, if the 1st 2 bets are both good, then a parlay is actually better. However, one minor caveat is that if 1 play is +EV, and the other is -EV, a parlay will usually end up being worse than flat betting both (depending of course on how far away from 0 the respective EVs are).
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