40k in a month ( I guess 2/3 as cool as schneids and gonores)

[bicyclekick]

My sample size is minescule and means next to nothing. I ran really well.

1.5bb/100 is what I think I can win in those games long term fwiw.

[Nikla]

I'm with you on this one. I really dont think these games played 10-handed with the regular lineup can be beaten for much if any more than 1.5BB/100. If you frequently hit these games when it's short and with acouple soft spots I'm sure you can run it up quite abit. But in the 10-handed scenario, I think 1-1.5bb/100 longterm is about as much as u can expect.

Congrats on the hot run though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-Nikla

[bicyclekick]

Right, I play enough of the SH games too, which is why my vpip /pfr look a little high for a game of that level. You're right, typical line-up 10 handed game 1bb/100 seems about right. Depressing, really.

[sthief09]

Are you a proven winner at that game? How many hands are you going to play? What type of winrate will you need to sustain?

IMO I don't think you'll do it unless you're a sicko who plays 60 hours a week. you may be good enough, but statistical fluctuations will cause you to fail a lot of the time even if your true winrate will put you at 40k.

even with rakeback, I don't think there are many players that can say "I'm going to have a 40k month" because of variance

[bicyclekick]

Alright, a final ss for this month as I'm not going to be playing any more hands.



If anyone is wondering why the last one had 26 limits and this one 25, i purged schneids and I's HU donk match from my DB.

[sthief09]

so close to 100k

[AviD]

bot

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you a proven winner at that game? How many hands are you going to play? What type of winrate will you need to sustain?


[/ QUOTE ]


Well, I don't have a ton of hands, but I think I have at least enough to say that i'm almost certainly a winner. I only started a little over a month ago, and I have about 50k hands at just over 2 BB/100. I don't think that i've been running overly well, but of course its imposssible to say for sure. I also like to think that i've improved at least a little from when I started, and have gotten a little more used to how the game plays, but anyways... i really hope my truewinrate is at least near the 2.0 range. Also, I do have a degree in math, and learned enough stats to realize that this sample size is pretty meaningless in terms of true win rate accuracy. So if I am in fact only a .5 BB winner, then perhaps this challenge will expose my suckiness (again, I was a math major, so i'm not sure if thats really a word), and motivate me to put in a lot more study hours to learn more about the game.

Anyways playing 8 tables I can get 500 hands/hour, even with some table selection and a decent amount of switching. So as long as I can play 30-35 hours a week (which is tough for me, and thats what the real "challenge" here is), then 65 - 70k hands should be possible. If I can run at 2 BB/100, then 60k hands would give me $36,000, and rakeback should push it over 40. If I can get in 70k, then I'd only have to run about 1.6 -1.7 BB/100, which is pretty reasonable I think.

I know that I can never be guarenteed of that, and I'll need a decent amount of luck to succeed at my quest, which I think makes it fun... but after all, as long as I get my hands in, even if I only do 1 BB/100 I'll still feel good about myself, and will be happy that I pushed myself hard. Of course any winning player in a challenge like this will have a chance of success somewhere between 0 and 1 depending on their skill level and such, and I'd like to think that if I do actually get the hands in that i'll have at least a 1/6 - 1/2 chance, which would be the case if my true win rate is in the 1 - 2 range.

Also, thanks to everyone for wishing me luck, as I know I'll need at least better than average luck to have a chance at reaching my goal.

[Schneids]

I hope you didn't purge our 100/200 HU out too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[surfdoc]

That is absolutely insane. Congrats man. That is effing sick. Anyone who does this deserves to brag. Unreal.