One of those "I got sucked along, it felt funny" hands. - Page 4

sthief09 · #31 03-24-2005, 05:04 PM

there are still 3 other people in. MP1 is passive so he probably won't be 3-betting. the third guy probably cancels that out. I think you'll get more river bets by check raising. CO raising the turn won't check if it's a Q, but you'll obviously have to bet if it's an 8. but say you get just 1 river bet from each. saying you don't feel great if the river is a club that gives you a straight. well, you should, because the top pair is a club and there's no reason to believe the CO is raising with backdoor clubs. so if we say he's getting 4.5-1, plus another 1 river bet from each, is 5.5-1.

saying you have 7 outs is not fair. that means HALF the time, someone has a flush draw here. I'd say it's more like 1%. neither player can have a flush draw unless it's specifically 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. so you're effectively getting 5.5-1 on a 4.75-1 shot

Entity · #32 03-24-2005, 05:04 PM

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How can you call?

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How many bets do you think you will get when you hit one of your outs? I think 3+ is very easily possible with a Q, and 2 if you hit an 8.

I don't care for the flop call though.

Rob

sthief09 · #33 03-24-2005, 05:06 PM

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I think that they are wrong. There, I said it. I am now out of the nest.

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this is how everyone should be.

sthief09 · #34 03-24-2005, 05:09 PM

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I agree with 7 outs because I'm not that worried about backdoor clubs. It would be nice to know the CO's river aggression, because I think there is a good chance you could check-raise the river and get 2BB from at least one of them, which would push it a little better than even EV. Also, any 8 may give one of them a second-best one card straight, but may also freeze up the betting on the river when the one-card straight comes in.

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obviously you'd have to bet if it's an 8. maybe in the situation you only average 1 BB in implied odds. but when it's a Q, you can be damn sure the CO will bet, letting you check raise. the passive guy with the K probably won't fold and neither will the CO, who has a strong hand. that's 4 BB. so saying 1 BB from each is probably a low estimate

MaxPower · #35 03-24-2005, 05:12 PM

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A 9 on the turn gives him a double-gutter.

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True, enough, so give him another half-out on the flop.

Still an easy fold.

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I'm folding the turn even though that 9 fell.

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If you are going to make a dumb play on the flop, it would be even dumber to fold the turn when you get lucky. Take advantage of your dumbness.

sthief09 · #36 03-24-2005, 05:13 PM

implied odds... remember, you're drawing 2 ways to the nuts. all the money that goes into the pot on the river goes right into your pocket.

QTip · #37 03-24-2005, 05:17 PM

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the third guy probably cancels that out

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hadn't thought of that

I've got to admit that there's no way I would have been able to figure this up while sitting at the table. Everyone would have had to gone to dinner, give me a calculator and come back when they're done with dessert.

I missed key elements like MP1 is passive and most likely isn't 3 betting, the possibility of the other limper coming in, the fact that if a Q falls, CO is betting...

Is this something that you're quickly recognizing? Asking because I'm wondering if it starts to come with experience. I know there are situations now where I used to have to ponder forever that now I just see without thinking.

QTip · #38 03-24-2005, 05:18 PM

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Take advantage of your dumbness.

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LOL! If I get good at this, I'll be filthy rich!

IndieMatty · #39 03-24-2005, 05:21 PM

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOO! Fold the flop.

TripleH68 · #40 03-24-2005, 07:26 PM

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PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

How many outs should I be giving myself on the flop here? Or what was I thinking? Flop bettor(MP1) is passive and likely holds a K.

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, CO calls, Button folds, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (5 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, CO raises, Hero calls, BB folds, MP1 calls.

River: (11 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, Hero folds, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

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CO shows A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the rivered straight. MP1 had KTo. Thanks for the responses.

I must confess I have a fetish for double gutters. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]