99 5-10 6 max - Page 4

Michael Davis · #31 03-22-2005, 03:34 PM

"For players of this type the math comes out highly in favor of calling river raises since a large portion of the combinations they might be raising are bluffs."

Interestingly, mike l. made this point to me just yesterday when talking about a passive player who tried to bluff him on the river: "the bet has to be either the nuts or a bluff." That's not a raising situation, but it's exactly what you're talking about.

-Michael

MAxx · #32 03-22-2005, 03:34 PM

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If you are raising the turn here to protect your hand/ For value, then what has changed? The one overcard? I am saying its easy as once you were not threebet on the turn you hand is usually ahead of the range of hands your opponents have. Yes it is likely that one was on a flush draw and will fold but not that both are, and not likely that that king helped anyone that called two on the turn. I think that given that you were not threebet you are much more likely to be up against a low pp, a five or a 2, and hance this river bet is pretty +EV.

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I would be raising turn as a superior alternative to calling down. Don't know Mike's intensions.

Does the Rivered Card change much. Well, IMO it detracts a little further from an already precarious board.

Sure the lack of a 3bet on the turn is a positive sign... but not as automatically conclusive as you may be thinking.

BTW I am just discussing, not trying to assert correctness as I recognize the always present possibility that I am flat out wrong.

DrGutshot · #33 03-22-2005, 05:43 PM

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edit: if you thought 66,77, a pair of 5's or 4's wouldn't call this river, you are wrong.

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Who said anything to the contrary. Sure 66, 77, x5, and x4 are possible calling hands. The issue is really how often you bet your hand and get calls with the mentioned hands or worse.

Folded draws don't help you, and checkraises are bad. Calls with better hands are not good. The only things you REALLY like are calls with worse hands. If the answer here is TRULY often enough... then you are right.

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IMO the fact that there are 2 opponents that could pay off makes this a bet for me. Often you will get called by one or both with worse hands. Maybe I'm too used to 10/20, but I dont think they're folding a pair here very often.

-DrG

ggbman · #34 03-22-2005, 07:24 PM

Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

Your Mom · #35 03-22-2005, 07:56 PM

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Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

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You raise to fold hands like KT that have 6 outs. If they do call with their 6 outs, then they are making a mistake. Unfortunately, sometimes that mistake wins them the pot as it did here.

ggbman · #36 03-22-2005, 08:16 PM

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Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

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You raise to fold hands like KT that have 6 outs. If they do call with their 6 outs, then they are making a mistake. Unfortunately, sometimes that mistake wins them the pot as it did here.

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If the K10 doesnt have a club, he's not calling one turn bet anyway. If he has a club, he has lots of outs and isn't folding regardless. You don't gain anything by raising here in the long rrun, you usually get more money in when you are beat.

Alobar · #37 03-22-2005, 08:47 PM

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Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

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You raise to fold hands like KT that have 6 outs. If they do call with their 6 outs, then they are making a mistake. Unfortunately, sometimes that mistake wins them the pot as it did here.

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If the K10 doesnt have a club, he's not calling one turn bet anyway. If he has a club, he has lots of outs and isn't folding regardless. You don't gain anything by raising here in the long rrun, you usually get more money in when you are beat.

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you didnt read the results did you? a KT with no club called.

This raise is pretty mandatory with a hand like 99. By not investing an extra BB you can easily lose this pot. You are also in prime position to do what mike did and take the free showdown, so it costs you the exact same price as calling down.

Your Mom · #38 03-23-2005, 01:24 AM

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Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

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You raise to fold hands like KT that have 6 outs. If they do call with their 6 outs, then they are making a mistake. Unfortunately, sometimes that mistake wins them the pot as it did here.

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If the K10 doesnt have a club, he's not calling one turn bet anyway. If he has a club, he has lots of outs and isn't folding regardless. You don't gain anything by raising here in the long rrun, you usually get more money in when you are beat.

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You might want to take a look at the rest of this thread. I'm guessing you'll find in interesting.

ggbman · #39 03-23-2005, 01:50 AM

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Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

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You raise to fold hands like KT that have 6 outs. If they do call with their 6 outs, then they are making a mistake. Unfortunately, sometimes that mistake wins them the pot as it did here.

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If the K10 doesnt have a club, he's not calling one turn bet anyway. If he has a club, he has lots of outs and isn't folding regardless. You don't gain anything by raising here in the long rrun, you usually get more money in when you are beat.

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You might want to take a look at the rest of this thread. I'm guessing you'll find in interesting.

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Ok, and maybe next time someone rivers quads on your top set you'll come to the conclusion that you should fold AA pre-flop, don't be results oriented here. What i'm saying here is that against a normal range of hands here, i don't think raising was correct. It may have been given their hands, but the fact remains that raising a paired board where there are 3 to a flush and 3 to a straight with no strong redraw is sub-optimal in my opinion. Instead of using a bet to raise here into possibly a better hand, why not just call down, as maybe UTG will bluff the river. It's more then likely given his horrendous turn bet. It's really just a simple matter of logic. NO ONE IS FODLING A HAND BETTER THAN YOURS. If they a crap hand, they will fold to your raise. You're telling me you think this is a good spot to raise 99 for value. Now if mike comes out and says UTG is a loose cannnon and bets into scary boards with 6 high, that would be one thing, but without reads here i would adamently maintain that raising is not a good move. If you have a serious response i'de love to hear it, but bullshit about protecting against K-10, because we all know that won't be a factor most of the time.

mike l. · #40 03-23-2005, 07:30 AM

not going to get too involved here, but i raised the 99 there because i figured it was still the best hand most of the time and i wanted to charge flush draws and overcards the max. if one of these guys 3 bet me (and there was no reason to believe they were maniacs) i wouldve folded.

as for why i checked behind the river it was just an intuitive check. i certainly understand the value of betting the river there and getting called sometimes in two places by much worse hands. but i was a little worried about sb cold calling the two bets on the turn. it was possible he had a flush, straight, or 8. also i did not have to conclude bb did not have me beat just because he didnt 3 bet the turn. that said, i did not raise the turn with the plan of checking behind on the river. if an overcard not making a 4 straight or flush had come i wouldve bet. and an T also seemed like a safe card (althogh i was wrong) as well as pair the bottom card on board or another 8, i wouldve bet all those. and i ive seen some pretty passive bad play with big hands on the 5-10 max the past week. everyone's play is very erratic and confusing in general.