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#32
03-22-2005, 01:41 PM
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Re: 1010 hand HU vs a tight player
[ QUOTE ]
A bet becomes profitable here only when somebody with A-high or a pair below TT is willing to call you down, which I'd generally not expect out of TPP players. [/ QUOTE ] Which was exactly my thinking at the time I posted this hand. 
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#33
03-22-2005, 01:48 PM
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Re: 1010 hand HU vs a tight player
[ QUOTE ]
If you're gonna call the river, you might as well bet. [/ QUOTE ] Why always take away the opportunity for a worse hand that would've folded to bet? Aside from bluffs, if you're always going to value bet the river, the only way it's profitable is if you're getting called more often by worse hands than better ones. Otherwise you're losing money. Bottom line - how likely is your opponent to call with bottom or middle pair? If he isn't, why bet?
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#34
03-22-2005, 04:37 PM
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Re: 1010 hand HU vs a tight player
You're right, the more I think about it, the less I expect this kind of behavior out of a TP-P. I didn't take the time out to differentiate between LP-P and TP-P.
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#35
03-22-2005, 04:50 PM
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Re: 1010 hand HU vs a tight player
[ QUOTE ]
Why always take away the opportunity for a worse hand that would've folded to bet? [/ QUOTE ] Lately, I see a lot more checking behind than I do bluffing. Another factor to consider is how often he'd check behind a better hand -- which, given how little he seems to like his hand so far, has got to be not-insignificant.
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#36
03-22-2005, 05:03 PM
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Re: 1010 hand HU vs a tight player
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you're gonna call the river, you might as well bet. [/ QUOTE ] Why always take away the opportunity for a worse hand that would've folded to bet? [/ QUOTE ] Because Hero has shown too much aggression up to the river to expect to induce a bluff when he checks. The percentage is MUCH in favor of this getting checked behind. You're more likely to get called by a worse hand than you are to have a worse hand bluff at you.
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#37
03-22-2005, 05:38 PM
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Re: 1010 hand HU vs a tight player
[ QUOTE ]
Because Hero has shown too much aggression up to the river to expect to induce a bluff when he checks. The percentage is MUCH in favor of this getting checked behind. You're more likely to get called by a worse hand than you are to have a worse hand bluff at you. [/ QUOTE ] Great advice. I completely agree here. (It seems we're like 50/50 either at opposite ends or completely agreeing). But... doesnt above kinda contradict: [ QUOTE ] No read = value bet (and call a raise) [/ QUOTE ]?? If you are so sure villian won't bluff bet it checked to, do you still think you are bluff raised often enough to call?
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#38
03-22-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: 1010 hand HU vs a tight player
[ QUOTE ]
But... doesnt above kinda contradict: [ QUOTE ] No read = value bet (and call a raise) [/ QUOTE ]?? If you are so sure villian won't bluff bet it checked to, do you still think you are bluff raised often enough to call? [/ QUOTE ] Not at all. You are betting because of the reasons I stated in the previous post. You are calling a raise because villian is unkown and folding for one more bet (getting 10.75:1 on the call) against an unknown is, IMO, incorrect.
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