Did I play this too fast?

[dreddie26]

but then you need better odds.

[dinero2433]

1.) Bet/reraise the flop.
2.) Bet/call the turn.
3.) Check/call the river. (Check/raise if you want to get aggressive)

Could UTG+1 have Jacks, fives, or sevens? Could be. If so, you're screwed, but that and 10 9 are the only hands I see beating you - a straight is possible from UTG+1, but highly unlikely given his preflop raise. Would he raise with 10 9? I'm betting he has AJ. So I think you're good here, but no need to get buck wild with a raise in case he does have you beat.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
a's and 8's are not outs, because there not the nuts. In fact if one of these carts fall it can cost you only extra.
there only 4 players, so even if youre odds are 1:4 you only break even at most.
So i still think you don't get value for that bet on the turn and should check (and call).

[/ QUOTE ]

In my post I discounted the A outs appropriately to 1.5 (I think that's even a little conservative given this particular situation). If you are only betting the nuts in the micro games you are missing out on a LOT of money, like at least 1BB/100 (probably as high as 2 in .5/1). Your thinking is WEAKIE-WEAK-ASS TIGHT. Take off the monster goggles and start playing good SS poker. I think I made a very good case for a turn bet, and if you can't see why, you need to study this forum some more. I know I sound like a total prick, but seriously, this is a key to winning poker.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Protection betting/raising can also have the effect of influencing profitable calling hands to fold as they may think you are stronger than you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's hardly true at this level. Plus given the action the flop, it doesn't look like you're going to fold out multiple better hands than here.

[dreddie26]

i don't only bet the nuts in these games of course. But if its not the nuts i want better odds, or else you loose in the long run.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with those of you who want to build a big pot on the flop by checkraising. Hero's hand is definatly strong (with a great redraw)

[/ QUOTE ]

Just on the basis of his top pair no way is Hero's hand here that strong. I'd play this just the way it is, a very strong draw hand that needs to improve in order to win a showdown against multiple opponents.

[jaxUp]

Dred, do you see what discounting the outs for the aces does? Think of an answer, and then read the following in white: <font color="white"> By discounting the ace outs, we account for the times that we make our ace, but get defeated by unfortunate hands like AJ or AA (in this case). By doing this, we force ourselves to try to get better odds than valuing them at 3 outs. So, actually, when you said that you wanted better odds, you were right to want better odds if considering the aces as three outs, but I had already taken that into consideration when I devalued them to 1.5 </font>

Why should the 8's count as full outs if they are obviously not going to be the nuts?? This is a legitimate question that you seem to have. Think about possible reasons, and read this in white: <font color="white"> Well, given the action on the flop and turn, we can be almost certain that no straight is out there, and we can be fairly certain that nobody flopped a set. When the flop raiser slows down, he clearly doesn't have it, and 88 or 77 are unlikely pf raising hands for the pf aggressor. So, the only hand we will really worry about is the possible JJ. How often do you think villain will have JJ? I would say at most, 1 in 10 times, and I have a feeling that it's a bit closer to 1 in 15. </font>

somebody holla at me if I'm out of line here, or in my previous math.

[dreddie26]

ok, you discounted the a's. But saying that the chance of him having JJ is 1:10 i don't think thats true. Because of his raise on the flop you almost know that he has high pocket pair and thus JJ change more like 1:4.
You also know he is probaley going to raise again. So with 4 players you still make even money (at most) and not gain anything with betting on the turn only the change that someone will fold and then you loose value on your bet.

[Twitch1977]

I think you need to start listening to jax and think through his arguments a bit more, I think most that post on 2+2 would agree with his analysis.

And to suggest that he is 20-25% likely to have JJ at showdown in that hand is ludicrous.

T

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, you discounted the a's. But saying that the chance of him having JJ is 1:10 i don't think thats true. Because of his raise on the flop you almost know that he has high pocket pair and thus JJ change more like 1:4.
You also know he is probaley going to raise again. So with 4 players you still make even money (at most) and not gain anything with betting on the turn only the change that someone will fold and then you loose value on your bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am very happy that you understand the devaluing overcards concept. It can be a bit tough.

It appears you have misread the hand. It was not UTG+1 who raised the flop, it was MP2. The fact that UTG+1 did not raise this flop makes it pretty unlikely that he has a an overpair. Most players at the micros will go nuts with an overpair here on the flop. This makes it way, way more likely that he missed his hand with overcards and can't let them go. On the flop, obviously hero should be capping with this many callers and a 30+% chance to hit his nut flush. On the turn, a bet IS appropriate, when nobody else is willing to show significant strength on the flop (and hero's great chance to improve). An overcard to our pair did hit, but we don't need to give UTG+1 credit for it just yet. He could just as easily had AK, AQ, ATs, KQ(most likely suited). When he raises, it becomes apparent that he is ahead with a possible AJ or slowplayed overpair (which I hope you see is very unlikely). The key is this: before we see UTG+1's raise on the turn, there are many, many hands that we are ahead of that hero is likely to have, and substantially less that we are behind

hands we are ahead of: 12 possible AQ, 12 possible AK, 3 possible ATs (ATo is viable as well, but I'll leave it out) All of these, UTG+1 is liable to have called on the flop with.

Hands we are behind: 9 possible AJ hands, 3 KJs hands, and maybe even 3 QJs hands. I am not going to include big PP here because of the flop activity (or lack of it).

The river bet is great, because even if somebody did happen to hit their jack, it's at least a breakeven street for me. This means that I am NOT losing the money that I put into the pot here. It may seem like it on this hand, but if you had a whole bunch of hands exactly like this, you would break even in the long run. if you are familiar with the concept of EV, this play is at very worst, a neutral EV, and I think (I believe others will concur) that this play s actually slightly +EV. (If you don't know about EV, then don't really worry about. +EV=good, -EV =bad).

what a fucl&lt;ing essay. sorry for the long-windedness, and thanks to those who actually read it. If any disputes, fire away. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]