Party Poker's Long Term Health

[o0mr_bill0o]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the theory that fish who lose money will stop playing.

Casinos are thriving on people who are THRILLED to put themselves in guaranteed negative EV situations on EVERY round simply because when they do win, it's a thrill for them.

Does this sound reasonable: if casinos keep taking people's money, eventually no one will frequent them anymore? Why do people apply this same logic to poker? I don't think the fish I play against are any smarter, I think they play for fun and don't really care if they lose over time (or are addicted, or THINK they're winning players or will be soon).

Ben

[/ QUOTE ]

here's the problem I have with online poker. you keep your bankroll on the site the whole time. so say i'm a fish who likes to play poker at a b&m, i go in, sometimes i leave with more money than i came in with and sometimes i leave with less. since i'm a fish i don't keep good records of my gambling, so it's possible to convince myself i'm a long term winner, or at least a marginal loser. with online poker you don't have that. you put your bankroll all on there, and just gradually watch it drop to zero. after a few buyins it's hard for a fish to convince himself that he's a long-term winner.

[lorinda]

I think the excessive TV coverage has already sent people through the phases of "This looks cool" to "What's on the other channel" in the space of a few months.

I don't think internet poker will die, but I think this will be it's biggest year.

I don't recall ever agreeing with FlFish, but people who don't think that the amazing growth is just a fad may wish to look back at the history of similar things (Snooker in the UK being a prime example)

They don't die out entirely, but they switch back to obscure much more quickly than you expect when in the middle of it.

It's not just a case of whether poker will survive in the sense people look at it, there is always the possibility of a better game coming along (Let's face it , winning poker is boring), the US government making it illegal, DOS attacks, something more 'fun' than PC's as we know them, and the fickle nature of people simply finding something else to do.

It will die out, but hopefully it won't return to 2001 levels at all. I think that this summer will be the peak for poker, although I don't think it will rapidly collapse.
At some point new players will equal players leaving, and while it is unpredictable in the extreme as to when this occurs, saying that it will definitely continue to expand, and not having a back-up plan would be an error for people considering becoming online-pro.

Lori

[peter t 9]

come on ,how many people do you know who play the state lotteries and megabucks for years and years , they never win but they keep coming back cause they think that eventually they will become winners. playing poker online is so easy to do that these types of gamblers er fish will not be going anywhere for a long time

[lorinda]

In 15 years the UK lottery has lost 2/3rds (from memory, will check details later) of it's customers from the initial starting point.

Lori

[FlFishOn]

"If they don't win, there's much less incentive to keep coming back."

Never forget, as a fish online there is no way to deny your fishiness. It's right there in the Visa statement every month.

In B&M poker, self deception is so much easier.

[FlFishOn]

"Reading this thread, it's painfully obvious that most of you are twenty-somethings who think they have a handle on the way the world works - wrong! "

You hit the nail on the head, an idiom that most 20sumthns will not understand in the age of staples.

It's a bit trying at times when your (sic) twice as old as you're (sic) average poster.

[Michael Davis]

It's foolish to dismiss anything said because of the age of someone saying it.

Many of you are disagreeing with Cubswin. Well, if you didn't know, Cubswin is an excellent, informed poster. That doesn't mean he can't be wrong on this issue, but it does mean that if he is wrong it is not because he is ignorant or stupid or inexperienced because of his age.

The regular 20somethings on this board are a whole lot smarter than your average 20something, and it goes hand-in-hand with poker success that they would take a more mature, long-term view of things.

Dismissing someone's viewpoint due to lack of experience is a pretty bad logical error, especially in this case, where it's not like any of us have lived through a popular poker boom.

-Michael

[SCfuji]

poker is a game that people love. winning or losing money can be highly INDEPENDENT of their love for the game. people will work their jobs and go to live or online games over and over again. i have friends that lose money consistently, yet continue to play games.

there will always be fish.

[vegasforest]

I totally agree. Fads come and go all the time. Remeber just a few years ago you could want into any mall in the US and find 20+ stores selling Beanie Babies and one stores selling poker chips. Now, it is the exact opposite.

BTW, I think Shawna Hiatt coming out of the closet would be a good thing for poker. That would translate to a lot of free press, and all fads are helped by free press.

Of course, poker will always be with us, but we may be seeing it at it's most popular right now.

[FlFishOn]

My comments were of a general nature.

Suffice it to say if I can tell you're a 20smthn by the way you write then what you have to say will be discounted.