I know I'm a quack for posting this about DR 510 down swing, but

[dogmeat]

Hey, I hate to see a respected poster/player like David Ross take such a large hit (-510BB in nine days), but I for one have always believed that swings even out. I would bet a steak dinner for David (and friends/family) in June at the WSOP that he will have a very significant increase in winning percentage by Valentines Day that easily wipes this amount out. I know that makes no sense from a mathematical standpoint, but I'm more on the Doyle Brunson side of this - streaks happen, and they even out.

That said, the upper part is not the part where I could be considered a quack (well, yeah, I guess there too), but....

I posted last month about this and nobody really cared. But what if Party and affiliates did the following:

They juiced the cards preflop for aces and faces. Would this not increase the number of players each hand, and would this not make the number of times a mediocre hand won higher? Especially straights and small connectors?

I know the following stats are not entirely accurate because they (1) only apply to my starting cards (2) Don't include any hands where I did not see the flop.

When I started with an ace and a face card, I expect to at least pair a card 35% of the time. However, for 15,000 hands my average has been 24.37%

That means I have flopped a pair/2pair/trips to the ace and/or face in my hand 25% less than the expected amount - for 15,000 total hands played (not actual hands with an ace/face).

I held the ace/face hand 1087 times (is this amount so high as to prove the hands are hitting more than they should preflop) and hit the flop 265 times for a percentage hit of 24.37% - is this percentage for 1000+ samples so low as to be impossibly small for a fair game? It seems to me, yes.

On the other hand, I'm still winning at my usual rate. But I wonder, if these numbers are too small for chance, would not the lessening of aces and faces on the flop hurt the aggressive players that always pop the pot preflop with these hands? And are not most of the best "pros" aggressive, and don't they like to raise/cap pots preflop with bigslick etc?

Yeah, I know I'm a Quack. Maybe the numbers I am getting are a statistical abberation and over the course of 300,000 hands will even out. I swore off poker tracker a few months ago, and don't have anything else to look at, but

Quack, quack

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]