Would you fold AA in this senario?

[Mr_J]

Well if 2nd best hand gets the full 3rd amount then that's the what makes the difference (that's why I asked for what the rule actually was).

Calling would be more fun than folding, but going up with 3k vs another 3k and 9k would be even more fun [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Mr_J]

"If my goal is to make it in the money, I fold.
If my goal is to win this thing, I call."

I'd think your goal should be to maximise your EV?!?

[SNOWBALL138]

Lets say that u win 50 percent of the time against the three hands, and that you can beat the remaining shortstack 80 percent of the time. that means that in 100 identical scenarios, the breakdown is this:

50 times, u bust out.
50 times, u come out with a huge stack and go heads up with a 4-1 chip lead.
Of those 50 times, u place 1st 40 times.
10 times, u place 2nd. 10x 30= $300
40 x 50 = $2000

so, your total prize money is %2300

Compare this to the probable outcome if you fold. If you fold, u end up guaranteed 3rd place all 100 times. This means that you win 20 dollars at least all 100 times, which gives you $2000 dollars. Additionally, u have a marginal chance to take 1st place, and a decent chance to take third by outmaneuvering your fellow shortstack.
lets say that if you can outmaneuver your fellow short stack even 20/100 times, u still come out with $600 those times. BTW, u can outmaneuver your fellow shortstack A LOT more often then that.

You get paid more for folding. Folding is the best play.

[Mr_J]

Not if they give 3rd place to the 2nd best hand. If 4/5 all-in, and the 3 loser get nothing, folding is clearly the best play. If the losers get a 3way split for 3rd prize, then it's close. If 3rd prize goes to 2nd best hand, then calling is better.

Anyway, you'll win more than 50% on average.

[ColdestCall]

AA is a call here for many reasons, one of which is the opposite of what you suggest. The "extreme heartbreak and sadness when your aces get busted by a lower ranking hand that outdraws you" is absolutely nothing compared to the heartbreak of watching the cards come out, seeing your AA hold up, and contemplating what a gigantic (expletive) you are for folding AA.

The day I fold AA preflop is the same day I stop playing no limit hold em.

[FirstClash]

The basic idea I wanted to portray is if you lose, your out... So maybe I should have Made it like this:

The 3 people in front of you have 1 more chip than you... 3001, 3001, 3001, then 3000 for the other guy who's not all in and 2997 for you. For me I think it's an easy fold here being the short stack, but your close to even. If I have just 1 chip more than the other 3 All-in's--so I'm pretty much guaranteed 3rd or better--it becomes an easy call for me.

For me it's like this, if I call, there is a 30-50% chance I'm going to be out of the tournament and out of the money. That's a chance I don't want to be subject to. By folding I protect myself from the effects of variance of the outcome for this particular play. I'm still in the tournament and can play the hands with less risk; and if I play correctly, I still have a chance for 2nd and 1st. I'd rather have a guaranteed chance to win rather than a chance for a great chance to win.

My friend does not believe this is the correct mindset to have if you want to be a champion. Any opinions on this?

[Mr_J]

That removes chance of picking up at least a piece of 3rd if you call, so yeh with the new stack sizes it's a fold.

"My friend does not believe this is the correct mindset to have if you want to be a champion."

This is an sng, and not a WSOP final table [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Your mindset seems fine for your example. It looks like you are looking to maximise EV.

"and if I play correctly, I still have a chance for 2nd and 1st."

I think this is the wrong mindset. Here I'm thinking 2nd place is probally mine. If I'm unlucky I'll come 3rd, and if I get a break 1st is a great chance.

[SpeakEasy]

[ QUOTE ]
The day I fold AA preflop is the same day I stop playing no limit hold em.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, what he said!

[SpeakEasy]

For those that say fold, try this as an experiment.

Get a deck of cards. Pull out AA, and any other 3 hands that will go up against your AA in this all-in example. Use some reasonable hands, yet not out of the realm of possibilities, like AKs, KK and QQ. Or maybe AQs, JJ and TT (loose table).

Lay these four starting hands face up on the table. Shuffle the rest of the cards. Deal the five community cards ("burn" and turn, if you like, to keep this scientifically accurate...). Record the result.

Leaving the 4 starting hands on the table, collect the community cards, shuffle and repeat 99 more times. Keep track of the results.

See what I mean?

[Frogistador]

For those that say fold, try this as an experiment.

Get a deck of cards and a cast iron frying pan. Pull out AA, and any other 3 hands that will go up against your AA in this all-in example. Fold your AA. Hit yourself upside the head with the frying pan. Repeat 99 times.