Party 3/6 turn decision

[sublime]

It's pretty easy to know/remember that a 2 outer is 22.5:1 to hit, so a huge pot, like 21SB, is an easy justification for calling here.

closing the action is huge, and we dont have that advantage here. this call is a little shaky IMO.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Any shortcuts I should know, or is it simply as basic as "this pot is huge, I have 2 outs to win a gigantic pot, so I should call"?

experiance.

also the flop call isnt as easy as has been pointed out, the chance of a raise is rather large cutting your odds down. if you do hit your 2 on the turn, you are not going to get paid off as well either due to your position relative to the last bettor.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey sublime,

If CO raises and MP1 3-bets, I think you're going to have to ditch (I haven't done the math, but it seems likely -- around 28-30:2 I think). But if CO raises and MP1 calls, then you've got great relative position to the likely turn bettor -- and if CO doesn't raise, your relative position sucks but you're getting more than sufficient odds for a call. So I think it's still a fine call.

Rob

[ThaSaltCracka]

thanks Entity and Sublime,
I assume experience has a lot to do with it.

22.5:1?
I thought hitting a two outer was about an 8% chance from the flop on?

bleh, I'll take your word for it [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
It's pretty easy to know/remember that a 2 outer is 22.5:1 to hit, so a huge pot, like 21SB, is an easy justification for calling here.

closing the action is huge, and we dont have that advantage here. this call is a little shaky IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely don't think it's shaky, especially given SF'ers point about CO's capping hands PF being fairly wide. Mind taking a look at my simple/stupid math (I haven't had my coffee yet) and telling me what's off?

Here are the scenarios I see:

Raised behind you, MP1 calls, you call.
Raised behind you, MP1 3-bets, you fold.
Called behind you.

I'll actually do the math in a bit, but it seems like it's gonna be +EV to call this.

Rob

[BottlesOf]

Sure, some advice is to spend 25% less time in OOT and spend that time here. The stuff comes a lot quicker and easier, with some experience.

[BottlesOf]

Why did you raise the turn?

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, some advice is to spend 25% less time in OOT and spend that time here. The stuff comes a lot quicker and easier, with some experience.

[/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[arkady]

he obviously put everyone ok AK, AQ and KQ.

his ducks just pnwed all.

[arkady]

because he wipes his ass with 8 grand....9 if he had chili.

[irisheyes]

Alright, so this situation comes up a lot for me (small pockets against overcards in a PF raised pot on a two-tone or semi-coordinated flop), and I think it's always correct to fold the flop if I miss unless I'm closing the action. Enough so, that I'd really like to feel comfortable calling with a few people behind me if it's correct.

I'm going to attempt my first real +/- EV analysis on this and report back.