8-handed online 20/40: shaky protection

[mmcd]

Folding this hand preflop is ludicrous. When some one open limps in MP, if they are semi-tightish, (not tight as tight players will rarely do this) I think their hand strength is probably somewhere around QTo, and if they're a little looser, their hand could be anywhere from slightly worse than that to complete trash. You have 3 players behind you. What are the chances one of those 3 random hands is better than A8s and plays for your raise or 3-bets? Also, what are the chances that one of the blinds wakes up with a 3-betting hand?

Personally I think raising is better than calling because you want the button and the lead here, but folding is just plain wrong.

[astroglide]

i posted it for the curious, but immediately deleted it because i came to the conclusion that results can only sour situations like this because it's a grey area for enough people that results will really dominate perceptions of 'who was right'. i think it's really best left unsaid.

[amulet]

interesting. however, i do not think the results matter. the questions have correct and incorrect answers regardless of one hands results.

[TimM]

The results do tend to kill the discussion though. It's probably best to wait until it's already dead, if at all.

[theBruiser500]

GoT, when you bet the flop why are you hoping for a button raise? It's interesting to see how different players think about poker. Like you I find math like this very interesting, so I know what to do in future situations and how much to value certain factors in a hand. Also thanks MMCD for the response, hope I didn't come off as a jerk when I attacked your use of IMO [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding this hand preflop is ludicrous. When some one open limps in MP, if they are semi-tightish, (not tight as tight players will rarely do this) I think their hand strength is probably somewhere around QTo, and if they're a little looser, their hand could be anywhere from slightly worse than that to complete trash. You have 3 players behind you. What are the chances one of those 3 random hands is better than A8s and plays for your raise or 3-bets? Also, what are the chances that one of the blinds wakes up with a 3-betting hand?

Personally I think raising is better than calling because you want the button and the lead here, but folding is just plain wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe we need to re-define some terms. I don't know anyone I'd call semi-tightish who open limps in middle position and has a hand similar to QTo.

[mmcd]

I meant semi-tightish as compared to your typical MP open limper. Most players, I think, would open raise with a hand better than QT. I'll often see people open limping with hands like T9o, T8o, 96s, K7o, 84s, etc.

More like a 30% vpip compared to a 55% vpip.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
i think your responses tend to be angry to my posts. why? someone who shares a passion, deserves respect and kindness. even if you disagree. and the purpose of this form is to discuss poker. therefore, if you disagree instead of making some rude comment, present the reasons you think i am incorrect. be constructive.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not personal and it's not angry. It's just trying a new way to get you to listen.

[TStoneMBD]

amulet id like to intervene here by mentioning that ive seen you post numerous times and alot of the things that you post are fundamentally incorrect. you are assertive in your remarks and appear to be stubborn in avoidance to change. youre a welcomed addition to the forum in my opinion, but you have some leaks in your posting "game."

[AceHigh]

GOT,

I ran these this thru twodimes and it seems like getting a better Ace to fold is worth about .095 EV. As long as the SB doesn't have AA. So it seems worth 3-betting if the pot is 20sb or larger and you are likely to get the button to fold and you won't get 4-bet some of the time by the SB.

See below:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=714911
pokenum -h ac kh - as 8s - qh qd -- 6d 4s 7c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 4s 7c 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kh 157 17.39 734 81.28 12 1.33 0.178
As 8s 208 23.03 683 75.64 12 1.33 0.235
Qd Qh 526 58.25 365 40.42 12 1.33 0.587

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=714912
pokenum -h as 8s - qh qd -- 6d 4s 7c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4s 7c 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 8s 321 32.42 657 66.36 12 1.21 0.330
Qd Qh 657 66.36 321 32.42 12 1.21 0.670

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=714914
pokenum -h as 8s - ah ad -- 6d 4s 7c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4s 7c 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 8s 212 21.41 766 77.37 12 1.21 0.220
Ad Ah 766 77.37 212 21.41 12 1.21 0.780