150 SNG New Years Eve Challenge - Page 4

Irieguy · #31 01-03-2005, 06:52 PM

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I'm very curious what you and McPherzen's long term ROI is for both the 33's and 55's? I'm beginning to think it may be +EV to play the 33's over the 55's.

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It's funny you should ask this. After our challenge we decided that we would complete our current batch of 500 $55 SNGs (which would only take a couple more weeks), and then move up to the $109's next month. We have since changed our minds and decided to stay at the $33's for a lot longer for several reasons.

At one of the tables I sat down at early in the day, some smart-ass 2+2er types in "hey Irie, if you're supposed to be so good, why are you only playing the $33's?" Well, if he watched what happened in that SNG and read this thread, the answer should be pretty clear.

McPherzen and I have similar long term ROIs at the $33 level: around 28% playing 4-8 tables for over 1000 SNGs combined. We haven't played 500 SNGs at the $55 level yet, but our ROI appears to be around 21%... again, playing 4-8 tables at once. So, we make a little bit more per SNG at the $55's, but there are other considerations:

1. You need less bankroll to play the $33's. That makes it easier to buy stuff and blow cash. I like to buy stuff and blow my cash.

2. The small ITM% decrease you see as you move up increases the likelihood of losing streams. That means that I am more likely to lose 15 SNGs in a row playing the $55's than I am playing the $33's. Anybody who has gone through that understands how bad it feels. Both Zen and I "quit poker forever" several times each month. Fortunately for our bankrolls, we only end up quitting for a few days before coming out of retirement again.

3. There are pretty major strategic differences between beating the $33's and below and beating the $55's and above. There is very little decision making necessary at the lower limits. At the higher limits you have to concentrate harder and make more decisions than you do at the lower limits. That fact has many implications, and we're just starting to realize how important some of those implications are.

So I'm still struggling with what limit is right for me. Obviously, I would love to play 500 $215 SNGs each month and beat them for 10%+ ROI. But there are many ways to skin this cat, and I think I may prefer to get scratched as little as possible.

Irieguy

bball904 · #32 01-03-2005, 07:44 PM

Excellent points that summarize my thoughts exactly. I'll add a fourth point for my situation.

4. I'm much more comfortable 4 tabling at the 33's based on the strategic implications in point 3. I 2 table at the 55's and a 15-20% ROI at 2 55's generates significantly less hourly rate than a 25-30% ROI at 4 33's.

I have significant personal experience with your 2nd point as well. In Nov, I had 25.3% ROI in 387 55's for $5,165 and in Dec I had 2.9% ROI in 311 55's for $495. It was a brutal 2 week stretch of ($1,760) in 172 tournies. Most of it was getting cold decked in bubble situations, and I was tearing what little hair I have left out on a nightly basis. From what I saw the other day, getting blinded off like I was tournament after tournament is one of the differences that you wouldn't expect to find as much in the 33's.

Mr_J · #33 01-03-2005, 07:56 PM

"I 2 table at the 55's and a 15-20% ROI at 2 55's generates significantly less hourly rate than a 25-30% ROI at 4 33's"

How can you compare playing 2 $55s vs 4 $33s? You should be comparing 4 $55s to 4 $33s. Assuming 15% at the $55s and 25% at the $33s then you make $8.25 from each sng for both buy-ins. Playing at $55s isn't costing you money, just increases the BR swings you'll face.

Interesting what you guys are saying though. I only started playing poker recently and basically skipped the low buy-ins (around 15 sngs) and went right to the $50s. Maybe if after if I'm hitting 15% or less I shoulo jump back down and see what I can make /hr at the $33s.

bball904 · #34 01-03-2005, 08:49 PM

I can easily compare 2 55's to 4 33's because at those levels that is what I am comfortable playing. I would not want to put myself in the position of being on the bubble in 4 55's concurrently. I am comfortable with that idea at 33's.

adanthar · #35 01-03-2005, 10:33 PM

How about your skill level, though?

All other things being equal, I'd play the 30's, but I feel like I'm getting better faster in the 50's...and I do want to hit the 100's/200's sooner rather than later.

But I know where you're coming from. Taking the swings is increasingly hard as they represent more money.