AQo Checkraising the flop with overcards

[Malcom Reynolds]

Haven't read the responses yet, but I think you should check/call the river, unless you see him often folding the river to a lot of aggression (i.e. will fold better hands than yours). The rest of it looks fantastic.

[bernie]

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not to mention it would be hard/almost foolish to call a potential bluff raise.

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It would be doubtful that a river raise would be a bluff given how the hero's action went. Nowhere in the hand is there any indication that he'd lay it down. You usually don't see that kind of move when strong moves were made earlier in the hand.

b

[AceHigh]

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If we set the EV's for calling and check-raising equal to each other, I get that you need the CO to fold 11.5% ... This doesn't consider the other possibility of leading-out, which may be the best of all.

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I don't think we need the 11.5% chance of CO folding, we need to know that he would pretty much bet this flop when checked to with anything. It's a large pot and there is a decent chance we have the best hand, that's what's important.

I appreciate you doing the EV calc, they aren't always easy. But we have a lot of good information here that isn't in the EV calc that makes check/raising correct. We know 2 players have folded, we know the 2 players between us and the CO don't like there hands enough to bet. That means it is fairly likely we have the best hand on the flop and fairly likely that we can isolate against the CO. That why check/raising the flop was a very good play.

[MoDOH]

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Do you think he folded a worse hand?

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Nope... Of course it´s possible that he folded a better hand than mine, but the majority of the time he will call this river bet if he has a hand that beats me.
Of course if you have notes on your opponent that he often folds on the river for one more beet in huge pots then it becomes ok to bet one more time. I didn´t have such a read on Villain though, making the bet -EV...

[Kaz The Original]

65 / 67 of diamonds could fold.

[Emperor]

For all the people who said your flop CR was spewing, they are leaving lots of money on the table vs LAGs. Especially if others at the table think you are a shark.

I use this play A LOT vs LAG's Maniacs and my favorite... ATM Machines. I want to be headsup vs them EVERY chance I can get. vs some ATM Machines I'm playing J7o or better like it is AA. This does 2 things. I win A LOT from the ATM Machine who is playing any 2 cards like they are AA. It causes the whole table to go on MegaloManiacal TILT.

You show down Jack high after CheckRaising a flop or a Turn to get headsup and IT WINS... The whole table loosens up a lot. I guarantee. (Ol' Creole cooking dudes voice)

Course when the whole table goes crazy its time to revert back to your microlimit strategies :P

[bdk3clash]

I'm with Rico; I like everything up to the river, where I prefer a check-call.

[DrBob]

This was a wonderful post for me. Thanks all. It feels like this kind of line is often a chip-spewing exercise, but then again it does work with some frequency. What I'm taking away is primarily the need to fully evaluate all the situation-dependent factors, in particular the HU target, the pot size, the board, and also the likely hand ranges and tendencies for those who you want to knock out. I've been sloppy in this regard, perhaps worrying too much about the impact on my table image if I get passive after the flop bet, and it's been a significant leak.