Foxwoods 10K hand

[MLG]

your right, I had the betting order screwed up in my head.

[sdplayerb]

around 2% of your chips, easy call.
With a 6x raise, you have to figure the guy is more likely to have a big hand here, maybe not AA, but QQ-99, AK, AQ (although i would raise a decent size with AA sometimes).

I do think 45s is still a third possibility behind 33 and 22.
I don't even see AA here as the stacks were too deep to flat call, in my opinion. I think AKs, maybe AQs are the 4th and 5th possibilities..i see no others.

Not really sure why i bother anymore, Sossman and i always seem to agree, and he states it first.
I'm waiting for us to disagree, then it gets fun. I think we did on the hands you posted that your student played.

[zaxx19]

10% rule for calling an aggressive raiser with mini pairs early in a tourney to me thats basic they are simply the best hands too bust aggressive players with.

[HiatusOver]

OK...So Stan Pushed my friend called...Stan Rolled over A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for the flush draw, gut-shot straight draw and possible overcard out. My friend is convinced he should have pushed but I still dont really think so. What about Stan's play? I can't kill it really, his draw is pretty monster and if he thought my friend would lay down 99-QQ (which my friend said he would have considered with all of them) then the play becomes pretty solid. As a side note, this is very second hand but I guess Jennifer Harmon was at the table and told my friend that she thought he needed to push here in this situation.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
OK...So Stan Pushed my friend called...Stan Rolled over A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for the flush draw, gut-shot straight draw and possible overcard out. My friend is convinced he should have pushed but I still dont really think so. What about Stan's play? I can't kill it really, his draw is pretty monster and if he thought my friend would lay down 99-QQ (which my friend said he would have considered with all of them) then the play becomes pretty solid. As a side note, this is very second hand but I guess Jennifer Harmon was at the table and told my friend that she thought he needed to push here in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if Jennifer Harmon agreed with me going for the push, how can I be wrong? w00t!

I recommended the push to try and get draws like that out of there. Your friends opponent had a weaker pre-flop holding than I expected, but a much stronger draw (not just the flush but the straight draw as well) than I had figured.

Even with a push your friends foe might have called anyway. But I still would've pushed.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
OK...So Stan Pushed my friend called...Stan Rolled over A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for the flush draw, gut-shot straight draw and possible overcard out. My friend is convinced he should have pushed but I still dont really think so. What about Stan's play? I can't kill it really, his draw is pretty monster and if he thought my friend would lay down 99-QQ (which my friend said he would have considered with all of them) then the play becomes pretty solid. As a side note, this is very second hand but I guess Jennifer Harmon was at the table and told my friend that she thought he needed to push here in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stan's play reeks. I don't know many players who would play QQ-99 like that (putting in a bet, and a non-allin reraise w/ a minor overpair on ragged flop). Those are the hands that he's barely ahead of that he wouldn't mind folding out.
If I were stan, I would have flat called when it was 3k and check folded if I missed the turn. He's got to fear a set there with that betting pattern. Like 80%+ of the time.

Re: J.Harmon - I wonder if she said that the hero should have pushed before or after Stan sucked out on him... my guess is after.

[HiatusOver]

Harmon suggested to just call the flop and push if Stan bets a non diamond on the turn. I am not sure what the plan would be if a diamond comes on the turn though...any thoughs? Also if a non-diamond turn card comes and stan now checks, what do we do?

[sdplayerb]

First, I think Stan played the flop great..i'll get to that in a moment.
Numerous of us, including me, said we gathered Stan most likely had an underset. But now that doesn't really make sense to me. With the stacks that deep I would expect him to lead out here expecting a raise to build a really big pot.
A checkraise is asking for the hand to be finished quickly, and Stan would want to win more than 5-600 more on this flop, had he had 33 or 22 (he really can't expect to be up against 88).
So I think semi-bluffing on a flush draw becomes a lot more likely here, as he does want the hand over.

Ok, so Stan goes for the semi-bluff checkraise and gets reraised. So what does what would you think you are up against given the preflop raise and the action?
I'd say AA-99, with it more likely being KK-TT based on his having an A, and 99 not being that strong (i do think the preflop raise was a bit strong for 88 and would say the same for 99).
Now if Stan pushes in where is he:
Against any hand from 99-KK he is both ahead and has to expect his opponent to definitely fold QQ-99, this is a $10K event. He should fold KK and AA as well.
There really are only two hands his opponent could consider calling with, AA (which he has about a 46% chance to beat), and 88, which you just can't expect your opponent to have..yes he had it, but it is very unlikely in the group of hands here.
Against KK-TT this is the correct move between:
1. Being ahead, albeit slightly
2. The money in the pot
3. Folding equity, which should be very high (this is the main point to the equation).


Now, from the set of 8s side, I did say flatcall originally. Since my opponent is a pro and checkraised in this deep stack situation, I really am going to discount a set of 2s or 3s and think most likely he is on a semi-bluff..maybe on a pair of Tens or 9s (maybe Js)...but he is likely going to shutdown at this point if not on a flushdraw.
Thus I do think it is right to make a reraise, and a bigger one than what was made...probably make it 4500-5000.

If he calls and it hits I am shutting down..it is still likely he will try to slowplay the turn or underbet it giving me fullhouse outs or a free shot at it.

Of course I read it and had time to think about it and it still took me this long to realize the flush draw was most likely (but i did think 45s was one of the most likelies). And it is tougher in your first huge huge event.

I do think Stan played it fantastically. He couldn't expect to be behind, got to strike fear in the heart of the other guy unless he had 88 (i guess or 33/22, but unlikely). He was playing to win.

Incredibly interesting hand.

SD

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Harmon suggested to just call the flop and push if Stan bets a non diamond on the turn. I am not sure what the plan would be if a diamond comes on the turn though...any thoughs? Also if a non-diamond turn card comes and stan now checks, what do we do?

[/ QUOTE ]

read the entire discussion we just had.

I like that Harmon agreed w/ me about smooth calling and pushing on a nondiamond turn card....she play goooood.

[SossMan]

when the hero puts in the 3rd non-allin bet on the flop, you really have to start fearing a set. You have zero (well, very, very little) folding equity from a set. You don't have draw equity vs. a set either.

After the hero raises to 3000, i think that eliminates QQ-99. Hero has specifically KK/AA/set. He's only a favorite vs. exactly KK.
I don't like his play at all.