Rick Nebiolo asked me to post this e-mail

[Gabe]

In reply to:

>I'm aware one shouldn't solicit opinions but this poker problem really has
>peaked my curiosity regarding your input.

>I just put up the following post (which concentrates on the flop decision) a
>few minutes ago. Here is the link:
> http://tinyurl.com/3zuvq

>Any feedback would be appreciated, but if you are busy that wouldn't be hard
>to understand [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

>Regards,

>Rick


Hi Rick,

At the table my first though would be as follows:

If I always win with two pair or better then,

The 3's. (I’d assume I’d win 3 more BB.)

3 x 17 = 51

B/D flush. (I’d pick it up 10 times and win 20%. I’d raise as mike did,
when I pick it up, so I win 11sb + 3bb when I make it and lose 1sb
and 2bb when I don’t.)

2 x 17 = 34

8 x 5 = -40

B/D O/E straight (I’d pick up a non-heart 4 three times. I’d raise, as he
did with the flush draw. Again, 11sb + 3bb when I make it. 1sb + 2bb when
I don’t. I’d make it 17% of the times I pick it up, so about .5 times
I’d win and 2.5 times I’d lose.)

.5 x 17 = 8.5

2.5 x 5 = -12.5

B/D G/S straight. (3 non-heart deuces and 3 non-heart 7's. Again I’d raise
when I pick it up. I’d make it 9% of the time, so it's about .5 times I’d
win and 5.5 times I’d lose.)

.5 x 17 = 8.5

5.5 x 5 = -27.5

Trips. (I’d figure I’d win 2 bb more with them.)

2 x 15 = 30

No improvement. (Lets say my hand is good and holds up 4% of the time. I
win 2 more bb when I win and loses an average of 1.5 bb more when I lose because I’d make a good lay-down sometimes.)

1 x 11 = 22

22 x -2 = -44

So, my initial overly optimistic view would be, over 47 times I’d win 154sb's and lose
124sb's for a .6sb EV.

I would then quickly look at it more pessimistically.

The 3's. (Everything the same as before but I lose 4bb's 17% of the time
with my 2-pair.)

2.5 x 17 = 42.5

.5 x -9 = -4.5

B/D flush. (Everything same as before but 10% of the time I lose 5bb when
my flush loses.)

1.8 x 17 = 30.6

.2 x -11 = -2.2

8 x -5 = -40

B/D O/E straight. (Everything same as before but I lose 10% of the time
with my straight.)

.45 x 17 = 7.65

.05 x -11 = -5.5

2.5 x 5 = -12.5

B/D G/S straight. (10% of the time I lose with my straight.)

.45 x 17 = 7.65

.05 x -11 = -5.5

5.5 x 5 = -27.5

Trips. (Now this is pessimistically fudged, because the times someone else
has a T there is only one way to get in trouble. Let's say trips loses 20%
of the time and loses say an average of 3.5 more BB when it does.)

1.6 x 17 = 27.2

.4 x -8 = -3.2

No improvement. (I think 4% was pessimistic enough.)

1 x 11 = 22
22 x -1 = -44

So even for the more pessimistic view, its win 137.6sb and lose 144.9sb over 47
times or only a -.16sb EV.

I would of course realize that, I didn’t count the times I picked up a draw and won with two pair on the river, or the times I got to see the river cheap and won with two pair. I also did not adequately account for the times I’d be able to get multiple bets from more than one opponent, because of my position relative to the bettor. Also, a scare card will often come, no one bets and I’d lose less, the times I’d lose.

I would consider the possibility that the player behind me might raise, and realize that he would not raise often. Because of his position to the bettor he would only raise for a free card or because he has a very good hand. A raise from him may actually not be too bad, because I may need a free card or his action my help me decide what to do later in the hand.

So, off the top of my head, I’d say you’re wrong, and folding is a mistake.

You were also wrong about the pastrami at the Hustler. It is much too dry, but I don’t have time to get into that right now.

Gabe