60-120 hand Th3h

[andyfox]

Started about 2:00 today. Everybody who moved into the game was stuck in one of the 40-80's.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
very first hand, excellent game. i have Th3h and i posted in the cutoff so i have a small bet in already. some people limp and i check and some other people come in and 7 of us see a flop.

Ts6h5c. sb bets, bb calls, two others call, i call. button folds. 5 of us.

[/ QUOTE ]

This time I've already read all the responses and the results (BTW, I do like the turn play) but I just don't make these kind of overcalls on the flop.

Here is the way I look at it. The small blind bets into six opponents with a rainbow board that contains middle cards and possible straight draws. Three opponents call before you. You have a top pair that is vulnerable to 16 overcards, you have a zippo/[censored] kicker (that may make someone a straight if you hit it), and a weak backdoor flush (I can't see much value in a backdoor one card low straight). Your over-over-over-call doesn't quite close the action with the button yet to act.

I'd be worried about drawing near dead to sets (the three flop calls could easily be sets, and if I'm in the SB I usually bet my sets into six opponents). You might rationalize that opponents holding two pair shouldn't be a problem or should they? My experience is that in a loose game they play T6s and T5s (the SB would easily play and bet these hands). That leaves your best chance in winning requires making (not semi-bluffing the turn) the backdoor flush. Getting 11 to 1 just doesn't cut it IMO.

Guys, please clear up my thinking here. I want to get beat up because I think I'm living on a different planet and deserve it.

~ Rick

[anduril]

(the three flop calls could easily be sets, and if I'm in the SB I usually bet my sets into six opponents)

if you go through every hand thinking that 3 people have sets because they called a flop bet you may want to go back to the drawing board.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
(the three flop calls could easily be sets, and if I'm in the SB I usually bet my sets into six opponents)

if you go through every hand thinking that 3 people have sets because they called a flop bet you may want to go back to the drawing board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously I don't think three people have sets, but when I see a bet and three calls (before the action gets to me) with a board with only one draw a set held by one opponent has to be considered.

I posted just before bed last night so perhaps I didn't state my complete case.

Another problem is that if Mike is facing no more than a ten-better kicker, he is extremely vulnerable to river redraws (nine cards redraw) even if he spikes a turn three.

More later...

~ Rick

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[andyfox]

11:1 and I have top pair, I'm not folding for one small bet on the flop. Unless Rick Nebiolo was the one who bet out. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[anduril]

lol nice

[mike l.]

there's been a bunch of limping preflop and one bet and a bunch of calls on the flop. fearing a set at this point is completely irrational and timid. folding top pair backdoor draws here is out of the question.

one reason i only called the flop is because of sshfap. it says just call on the flop when you very well may be ahead (i was in fact, unless sb made some sort of very surprising laydown on the turn) and see what comes on the turn. even if i knew my hand was ahead on the flop here the most it could be is a very small favorite and it's even more likely to be a dog against all the possible overcards, draws, backdoor draws, etc.

by waiting to see what comes on the turn (and because of my fortunate position) i can wait to see how i like my hand then. when it stayed top pair, and picked up other likely outs (flush draw and gutshot) i liked it a lot more despite 3 others still being in and sb still firing. i figured the pot was getting big and this was the time to try and do whatever i could to win the pot. also if i could get to a showdown for free that was a good thing, not to mention getting more money in the pot as a more significant favorite and better defining the other players' hands. but no one is complaining about the turn raise so no reason to defend that.

one last point: in all situations you need to really know your opponent's tendencies. look at the results and what bb and lady called the flop with. they both have almost nothing. and the pot wasnt even raised before the flop. they were getting very slim odds on long shot runner draws. bb called with all those people to act behind him still and he had nothing! knowing how loose players play before and after the flop helps determine how hero should play his hands and my play of this hand was partially based on the wide range of hands i felt they could call the flop with. in a tougher game where this multiway pot was a rare occurence than fearing a set would be a little more reasonable. fortunately we dont play in games like that rick.

[Gabe]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to get beat up because I think I'm living on a different planet and deserve it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, Clarkmeister was right about you.

[Rick Nebiolo]

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there's been a bunch of limping preflop and one bet and a bunch of calls on the flop. fearing a set at this point is completely irrational and timid. folding top pair backdoor draws here is out of the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I clarified a bit above (under anduril) it is not merely fear of sets. The aguement against calling comes down to this:

- With a bet and three callers, I am behind the vast majority of the time (maybe I gave too much credit to your 60/120 opponents [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).
- Some of the time I'm hopelessly behind (to a better two pair or a set waiting to spring on the turn).
- If I'm only a little behind and I catch my kicker on the turn, I'm vulnerable to river redraws
- The rare times I'm ahead I'm extremely vulnerable.
- The backdoor flush draw has significant value, but not enough to make up for the above. If other factors don't add (or add much) to your EV, you need about 25 to 1 or better for backdoor flush draws alone (according to Sklansky analysis).
- The backdoor one card bottom end straight draw has little value against this large field.



[ QUOTE ]
one reason i only called the flop is because of sshfap. it says just call on the flop when you very well may be ahead (i was in fact, unless sb made some sort of very surprising laydown on the turn) and see what comes on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to see Ed's thoughts on this. Divorcing results, i.e., the fact you were (or were you, the SB folded the turn and we don't know what he had) in the lead on the flop shouldn't matter.



[ QUOTE ]
even if i knew my hand was ahead on the flop here the most it could be is a very small favorite and it's even more likely to be a dog against all the possible overcards, draws, backdoor draws, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes your hand was very vulnerable even if ahead or even if it pulls ahead (when you spike a turn three).



[ QUOTE ]
by waiting to see what comes on the turn (and because of my fortunate position) i can wait to see how i like my hand then. when it stayed top pair, and picked up other likely outs (flush draw and gutshot) i liked it a lot more despite 3 others still being in and sb still firing. i figured the pot was getting big and this was the time to try and do whatever i could to win the pot. also if i could get to a showdown for free that was a good thing, not to mention getting more money in the pot as a more significant favorite and better defining the other players' hands. but no one is complaining about the turn raise so no reason to defend that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your turn raise too. But even on the turn you have a slim overlay after hitting near perfect (getting the inside straight draw in addition to the flush draw) . To get there you took way the worst of it on the flop.



[ QUOTE ]
one last point: in all situations you need to really know your opponent's tendencies. look at the results and what bb and lady called the flop with. they both have almost nothing. and the pot wasnt even raised before the flop. they were getting very slim odds on long shot runner draws. bb called with all those people to act behind him still and he had nothing! knowing how loose players play before and after the flop helps determine how hero should play his hands and my play of this hand was partially based on the wide range of hands i felt they could call the flop with. in a tougher game where this multi way pot was a rare occurrence than fearing a set would be a little more reasonable. fortunately we dont play in games like that rick.

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When you said "excellent game" I figured "excellent game by 60/120 standards". It sounds like your 60/120 is a better game than the 15/30 and 20/40's I play [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

How was he right? What did he say! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]