Oil Companies Doing Their Job

[MMMMMM]

I don't have a prediction for the price after November. I don't study the gasoline futures market. If forced to guess, however, I would guess that it will be about whatever the gasoline futures for that time are trading for right now.

Also, it isn't just futures "traders" who study these markets. It is companies in the oil and gas industries, hedge funds, and even governments--note the plural. The former USSR itself was a very savvy and tough trader in certain commodities markets.

What you need to understand is that deliberate manipulation can only affect things to a certain extent and after that it fails due to larger market forces. When George Soros "broke the Bank of England" by fading their interventionist tactics of trying to prop up the British Pound, he was basically saying that the market was larger and more powerful than the Bank of England. He was right and profited something like a billion dollars on that coup--and the BOE ended up taking it up the wazoo.

So if the oil or gasoline companies are trying too hard to force the price of the market in any certain direction, they ultimately will take it up the wazoo too. But hey, that's YOUR chance to become a millionnaire--if you are right.

[cardcounter0]

MMMMMM if I understand correctly, using the large government trader theory, is saying the price after the election will be lower than it is now, if I am understanding the outgoing upward drifting inverted curve model of the futures market as presented earlier.

Is this close?

[riverflush]

cardcounter...

With all due respect this is one of the more ignorant posts that I've seen on 2+2. You need to pick up a WSJ on your way out tomorrow morning, that would be a good start.

The world oil market does not work the simplified way you think it does.

Sometimes I wonder why I read down the entire post, it must be some sort of neurosis that I have or something.

(cue X-Files music)

[adios]

Out months on oil futures were around $25 a barrel for August 2004 a year ago if memory serves. Today oil is over $48 a barrel, go figure.

[cardcounter0]

Sorry, I did not see a price prediction in your post based on your ignorance-need-a-wall-street-journal theory.

[cardcounter0]

According to economic experts on this board, the future market is controlled by large Government entities and other very savvy traders, there is NO WAY they could of been that far off. Such numbers could possibly suggest some type of market manipulation. Would you like a tin-foil hat?

[MMMMMM]

I'm honestly not quite sure what you are asking, but let me try to clarify what I am saying.

There are lots of huge and very sophisticated traders in these markets. Any large enough player, or consortium of players, can push prices somewhat in one direction if they buy or sell enough, or temporarily manipulate things like production somehow.

Ultimately, though, the larger market forces take over. The market finds its own level eventually. And if some players are too aggressively trying to manipulate prices in one direction, they take the risk of other players--or even the bulk of the market itself--taking a contrary position because others will perceive that prices are somehow skewed. So if gasoline companies were acting at the behest of Bush to manipulate prices, they would be taking a huge risk because other world players might be expected to spot the inequities in the market and take advantage--to the manipulators' detriment.

So if you believe strongly that prices are going in one direction--and your target price is significantly away from the market's estimated price for that future date--you could potentially make a great deal of money by betting correctly in these markets.

Now of course such bets carry risk, and you always have to pay some sort of spread or commission to enter a position. So I am not seriously recommending that you do this, because most small traders just lose money and are usually wrong and bet poorly as well. But hey, maybe you are right that prices will be way out of line with the market's current estimates come November or December. So... bet away if you care to! ;-)

[cardcounter0]

Sorry, but once the wheel is spinning you need to be quick with your bets. I have you down as prices slightly lower than now. Do you wish to change your prediction?

I understand what you are saying about long term forces, but we are talking about a very specific short term time period -- the few weeks following the election.

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
But hey, maybe you are right that prices will be way out of line with the market's current estimates come November or December. So... bet away if you care to! ;-)

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's what makes a market, it's the American way [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[lu_hawk]

mmmmm,

Why bother? This thread has just degenerated into cardcounter making a fool of himself.