Live 2-4: AA on Drawless Board and Top Card Pairs on the Turn

[Tosh]

I didn't say its likely, but I think it is possible, even for a passive player.

The more I think about it, the more I give myself a lot closer to 4 outs than 2.

[Navers]

I remember reading in TOP that if a player bets into you where you can't see a draw that he has, then the chances of him having a relatively good hand is high. The raiser can't be bluffing because he assumes you'd call because he thinks you don't see the good hand he has. There are no flush draws, the only draw is an inside straight draw that most people wouldn't raise the turn with. I don't understand what hand he could have that you could beat.

Someone raising that turn in my opinion is most definitely beating you.

[Nate tha' Great]

I think it's probably a fold. The reason why is because there are still two players left to act behind the anti-Hero. If he intends to win the pot by bluffing, he not only has to push Hero off his hand, but he also has to hope that neither of the players behind him called a drawless, Q-high flop without a Q. If the *last* player to act had raised after the two players ahead of him at folded, it would be a calldown.

That said, I do think it's close, and I'd call down without a solid read on the player.

[turnipmonster]

it's not that it is an easy or hard decision, it's that it's a player dependent decision. as nate pointed out, seems doubtful a loose passive player would be getting out of line here with two players behind, and so it's a very easy fold against that type of player, who wouldn't raise the flop fearing a better queen.

if the guy is tricky at all or it's remotely possible he's making a move, you call down. some players you have to call down here, some you have to pay off. I lean towards paying off, but it's not a gut wrenching decision, it's 2 big bets.

--turnipmonster

[Tosh]

Hero is closing the action, the other two players have folded.

[Joe Tall]

Hero is closing the action, the other two players have folded.

Tosh,

Nate is saying that it is less likely the turn-raiser is bluffing as he is raising in front of two other players besides the hero.

In addition to the read, drawless board and that this hand was played live I agree with the fold.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Tosh]

Sorry misread it, first thing I looked at after getting up. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[bernie]

It's obvious you're beat on the turn. That's a given. It's a question of whether you're seeing the turn to redraw, then maybe the showdown.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Nate is saying that it is less likely the turn-raiser is bluffing as he is raising in front of two other players besides the hero.


[/ QUOTE ]

The fact this is basically a passive player alone grants this read. They rarely bluff at all anyways.

I would've likely laid it down also. Which may be wrong to do if he actually does have 33 or 77. The part that's close is if he could have a Q. So you only have really about 3 outs if he might have a Q. Which is a fold. However, this play is most consistent, in my experience, with 33 or 77. Passives tend to see monsters, and they looove to wait to the turn with a set. Blasting it even if it might kill their action.

If this player would play top pair regardless of kicker a little faster on the flop, then a fold here is wrong. If he would just call down with Qx, or if he's the type that will wait to the turn with top pair that has been popular, though a little less popular lately, among even some passives, then i think I lean more towards the fold. (this was a result of a cardplayer article) So it kind of boils down to what this player is capable of with top pair.

b

[Victor]

Yes, this is an easy situation to deal with so long as you know your opponent and arent married to your hand. So long as the opponent is not tricky or lag I fold, especially if he is passive or weakish (as you describe).