Play This Hand Against Me

[bobbyi]

I don't get it. Given that, as you say, there are six times as many combinations of AA as of 88, why "should" you checkcall?

[andyfox]

I hadn't heard of Foxtrot, so I just googled it and was delighted to see me so prominently featured. Here I thought I was destined to be just a utility infielder.

[Gabe]

There isn't anything you could have other than 88. If you're trying to say that you could have had AA or KK, I think you're lying, or kidding yourself. If you could have AA here it would be with such rarity to be almost negligible. You would have sprung to life on the turn with AA (or A8, if you’d have 3-bet with it preflop, which I doubt) and raised the flop with two big [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s or any other hand you’d be willing to call two cold on the turn with, including KK. In fact with the live one in there, I can’t see you slow playing AA. (Maybe if you had the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])

By the way, although you don’t mention it, I know there must a been a reasonable chance that the live one would have folded to two more before the flop, or you wouldn’t have 3-bet.

[andyfox]

Quads are so rare, I seldom, if ever, put somebody on them. That is, if there are a few hands to consider, say, in this case, A-A, or Ac-Kc, or even K-K or 8-8, I usually disregard the quads. I could almost see my opponent go through the possibilities as he worked it out and then come up with the same conclusion you did and make a crying call. He was smarter than I would have been in the moment.

I always figure there's a reasonable chance of a limper folding to two more bets pre-flop. While he's a live one, he does have a bit of "fear" of both the raiser and me. Strange bet he made on the turn.

[skp]

Because Andy's play is not entirely consistent with AA. I would have thought he would raise with AA on the turn.

His play is entirely consistent with 88 however.

Thus, although AA is 6 times more likely on a Bayesian analysis, from the play of hands viewpoint, it's nowhere near that. Thus, the checkcall idea (in theory at least...in practice, like I said, I would probably have lost 4 bets on the river).

[bernie]

The turn is kind of key for me. Once you just coldcall here, you have something very good. I think you'd have raised with a draw on the flop. With AKc. An overpair, with the draw on the board, i think you'd have played it much faster on either the flop or turn.

Other than what is likely obvious, i'd overthink the stupid thing and likely just bet out on the river and call a raise. Paying off like a slot machine.

b

[bobbyi]

Thanks, skp. That's what I had guessed, but I wanted to make sure I understood. Thanks.

[Drscheist]

I can't blame you one bit for slowplaying, but it's just another example...I can't wait to tell my brother about this hand, he's a slowplaying addict.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Pocket 88 is perhaps a reasonable hand for you to have, except for their being TWO eights on the board. I don't know your play enough to say for sure if you'd go for the "re-isolation small/mid pair reraise play" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] or not, but it's a "possibility."

A far more reasonable hand for you to be holding here is AcKc. It's completely feasible you'd play it this way.

Another reasonable hand for you is an overpair.

I'd go for the check-raise. You DID call a raise the turn, after all. It's reasonable that you are likely to bet this river.

Hopefully I am right and won't get "Hey Al, lay off the damn crack-pipe, will ya?" type responses! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

al