Q9s -- Big Pot -- Big Draw -- Big Bust

[J.R.]

Your flop call closing the action is a significant mistake, the preflop call is easy and you are wrong to state that reads don't matter because the decision you faced on the river could be much clearer with some reads.

[sthief09]

I love how you come here, thinking you know everything, yet completely clueless, and start talking [censored] to someone who, judging by the brilliant things you've written, is just better than you.

go away

[arkady]

hey gm,

given the way it played out on the flop, I did not think that anyone had a set. But a set in that case is more likely than AA, because unless they are super aggressive they would not be doing what they did on the turn with just AA.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
hey josh,

the only reason for not 3 betting the flop is to avoid knocking out the rest of them. nothumb liked it for the same reason, but seems the majority thinks 3 betting is the way to go. I if i had AQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I would in a second - but that doesnt say much. But that remind's me of Joe's J9s and he capped - so bleh. Any numbers that might prove why 3 - betting is better? I am not convinced if this is a good spot to pump for value.

[/ QUOTE ]


but you're closing the action. the most likely scenario is that everyone calls. plus, consider that you have an overcard. there's no reason at all to just call with what will almost always be 13 outs.

but you want math? with 13 outs, you're going to hit around 50% of the time. you ahve 4 other people in the pot. you need to get around 1-1, and you're getting 4-1. sounds like a good reason to me. even if you force 2 people out (which you almost always won't), you're still getting 2-1 on an almost 1-1 propsition.

[papawawa]

i love how being better than someone at hold 'em completely justifies being a dick to them

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
i love how being better than someone at hold 'em completely justifies being a dick to them

[/ QUOTE ]


so instead you justify being a dick because you're worse?

[nepenthe]

You said this was at Party? I'm not folding the river in this situation and expect to chop with at least one other player enough of the time to compensate for the times I don't. Yes, AQ is a likely possibility but if one of them is overplaying a set and if the other one is overplaying a KQ, you'll never forgive yourself. I make the crying call and immediately prepare my notes.

[StellarWind]

You should bet the flop and hope the PFR at the end raises all the callers. Failing that you have an easy call-reraise acting last after the checkraise. You will win this much too often not to be charging this field.

I think you should just call the turn. SB apparently just turned something great: AQ, Q9, TT or possibly two pair. If you were heads up we could debate the EV of raising him, with consideration of the likelihood of different hands, your respective flush and boat outs, and the chance of being reraised by AQ. Maybe a raise is slightly profitable. But here you have the awesome alternative of not taking any risk and quietly playing for three overcalls. If the river blanks you can call again and play for more overcalls. Minimum loss when you lose and possibly the maximum profit when you win.

Another consideration is UTG may wish to raise the turn. If that's the plan you should let him regardless of how you feel about your winning chances. Even if you think raising is correct, call-raising would be even better.

Note that when UTG coldcalls the turn after his previous limp and checkraise you are at serious risk that he holds A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Be careful if you make your flush.

I hate rivers like this. I don't see how you can crying call multiple bets hoping mostly for a split. It's difficult to believe they both have sets.

[adanthar]

When can I expect to see you trying to outwhine Phil Hellmuth on ESPN2?

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
there's no reason at all to just call with what will almost always be 13 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
12 outs for flush+gutshot. This is the second time I've noticed you posting this double-counting mistake even though you know better. Do you have a little leak here?