50/100 NL hand vs Far

[Ben5505]

What card did the lovely river bring?

[KaneKungFu123]

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What card did the lovely river bring?

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does it matter?























































A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[AZK]

when I start playing those games, I hope I run as good as you.

[lapoker17]

Jesus, you're sick.

[yvesaint]

just how good can one man run

[jjacky]

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can you show the math please?

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sure.

pot odds are 5600:16400 = 2.93
that translates to a necessary winning chance of 25.45%

if we assume 10 outs (and 44 unseen cards) if he is behind, he wins 10/44 = 22,72%.
if we assume 31 'outs' if he is ahead, he wins 31/44 = 70.45%.

if p is the chance that you are bluffing, his winning chance is
p * 70.45 + (1-p) * 22.72
this term must be greater than 25,45

therefore the break even point is
p * 70.45 + (1-p) * 22.72 = 25,45
<==> p * 47.72 = 2.72
<==> p = 0.0571 = 5.71%

the break even point obviously depends on how many outs villain has on average (especially when he is behind) but with the variables i have calculated, this is a clear call imo.

*edit* the slightly different value compared to my first post is is due to a different number of outs that i have assumed if he is ahead (in this calculation it is a little bit higher) and more exact calculation

[BobboFitos]

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The truth is that nobody ever checkraises with a draw and folds it on the same street. Never.

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yea... hu kane id check the turn, call some rivers with just 4s and raise/put in nice value bet if i do hit.

that would be standard tho, no?

also - and I have a feeling you wont answer this - why minraise this hand pf? very interesting to me.

[BobboFitos]

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I never considered he backdoored a flush draw because his raise doesnt leave enough money behind in his stack for me to be afriad of the river, basically he is making it push or fold for me which doesnt make much sense with a draw.

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Thats why he plays limit!

[KaneKungFu123]

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also - and I have a feeling you wont answer this - why minraise this hand pf? very interesting to me.

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just too be more random. let him call here with J7s.

[BobboFitos]

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also - and I have a feeling you wont answer this - why minraise this hand pf? very interesting to me.

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just too be more random. let him call here with J7s.

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ahh ok. not as complicated as ithought it would be [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]