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#31
07-27-2005, 04:03 AM
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Re: Takin a Shot at 25/50, KK play
Good check on the turn. Here's why. On the flop, he puts out a tester. If he is as tricky as you say, he probably is not betting this hard on the flop with a set. Maybe he is, but probably not. Either way, you're letting him know with the raise that you have something. Quick calls to me alot of the time mean draws. I would put him on AQ hearts or even more possibly j9 hearts, giving him a straight and flush draw. He's hoping for a free card on the turn. If you bet on the turn, he will probably let it go. When you checked, he saw his opportunity. He knew that his quick call on the flop scared you into checking the turn, so he probably has you pegged on jacks or queens, maybe even kings or aces that are scared of a set. When the board pairs on the river he knows that if he bets big enough he will be playing into your fear of what is now a boat, hoping you think that he'd bet the boat because he wouldn't want you to check behind.
The truth is, if he flopped a set, the action would be pretty similar, except for firing out on the flop like he did. But let's face it. If he made a boat on the river, would he bet 2400? Probably not that much. That is why it feels like a bluff. The river bet is just a little too large for its own good. It doesn't feel like it wants a call. I think it's a whiffed draw, or a10,88, 99, hoping you'll fold your jj-kk and maybe even your aces. If he does have a set, doubtful that it's 1010 because he probably wouldn't bet out the nuts on the flop. It more and more feels like jj or j9 hearts. 
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#33
07-27-2005, 12:37 PM
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Re: Takin a Shot at 25/50, KK play
OK. I've thought about it. The turn check is kind of
a way to limit the size of the pot. If you're behind well you're likely going to lose a medium sized bet since villain wants to be paid off. If you're ahead you may induce a bluff. Hehe. Works as long as villain doesn't make a huge overbet on the river... I see lots of people overbetting big with the nuts and getting called... wow. Pocket pairs are kind of difficult to play in a big pot post flop, and this is one way if you don't mind giving out a free card. Don't you love it when you get to act last each betting round?
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#34
07-27-2005, 09:53 PM
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Re: Takin a Shot at 25/50, KK play
Can someone educate me as to why it is better to raise this flop than to just call? If I am against a very aggressive tricky player, I would prefer a call on the flop to keep the pot manageable and extract value on the turn when he bets again with a likely worse hand. I think a flop raise gives a tricky opponent the opportunity to reraise or lead big on the turn which is dificult to handle with an overpair. Is my thinking wrong here?
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