Buying Points and Related Issues/Sports Betting Theory Question

[YoureToast]

Syg, I don't think this is correct. I'll think about it some more, but the percentage changes your referring to (which clearly valid theoretically) presumably are built into the Pinnacle lines I used. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding.

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Syg, I don't think this is correct. I'll think about it some more, but the percentage changes your referring to (which clearly valid theoretically) presumably are built into the Pinnacle lines I used.

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No they're not. If Pinnacle were actually offering a line for Atlanta at -10.5, the move from 9 to 10.5 would not be, as your calculations state, from +146 to +172. The 26 cents you are claiming Pinnacle is computing is based on the Cincinnati game, with spread 9.5, which starts near a wager price close to +100. A move from +100 to say +126 is worth 5.75% (I'm skipping the math this time). A move from +146 to +172 is worth 3.89%. These two 26 cent line moves are not identical. In your method, they are. A move from Atlanta -9 +146 to Atlanta -10.5 would actually result in a wager price of +186.5 at Pinnacle, not +172.

What you need to take out of this is all cent moves are not equal. I do like your work on the computations -- very useful stuff.

[ThomasJoe]

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By TJ: "unless you can become the broker and for me that has been by grinding out middles in baseball when I find numbers that put me in a no lose situation."

I've been following this thread w/ interest and I found the above statment incredible. I've never heard of a "no lose" situation, at least from the bettors perspective. How is this possible?

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When a not so smart bookie likes to keep the line at -110 both ways on baseball totals it often comes up where when a total goes past +110 you can bet both sides of the game and win regardless of the final score.

[papilindo]

i'm a 3 year old at this ;~), could u give a more detailed example of how it would play out? i'd greatly appreciate it.

Let me give you another real time example. Washington is currently favored by 2 over Seattle. The Giants are favored by 3 over the Rams. When you move from 3 to 3.5 in game 1, the average cent move of the 2 teams is 25; when you move from 3 to 3.5 in game 2, the average cent move is 22. Ask yourself why that is.

Ed: And when accounting for vig increase changes, these two numbers become 24 and 19, respectively. An even starker contrast. You're right, Pinnacle certainly does know what they're doing. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ed 2: I didn't halve the vig adjustment as I should have. The numbers are actually 24.5 and 20.5, respectively.

[YoureToast]

Syg, I understand it....Thanks for the clarification. So instead of focusing my calculations on the number of juice points that change, I should focus on the percentage that they change relative to the opening line.

Basically, yes. The juice point change is a useful shortcut if most of the moves are very close to +100. Otherwise, percent changes are more valuable in all other circumstances.

Ed: On second thought, you should be calculating percent changes between individual number changes if calculating half-point values as you did, not all from the opening line wager price.

Ed 2: In addition, I'm willing to bet my Atl -10.5 +183 calculation earlier was wrong -- that the number is actually around +210 or +220 (ed: prob +195 to +210). -141 and +141 were not good enough approximations of the 82 cent move we needed to account for. I'm learning something here too. Sometimes it takes this thinking out of problems to reach the right conclusion.

[ThomasJoe]

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i'm a 3 year old at this ;~), could u give a more detailed example of how it would play out? i'd greatly appreciate it.

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Sure. 1. you have to have a friend who lets you bet baseball this does not work at a real book. The friend gives out lines but does not put a money line on a total he keeps is simple and says the line is NYY/Bost over under 10.5 -110 both ways. Now if I get a line at pinnacle at Bos/Nyy at over 10.5 plus 115 I would bet 975 to win 1121.25 and i would bet my friend under 10.5 -110 or 1100 to win 1000. So no matter what the score is I win either 21.25 or 25 (1000-975) This is drying up lately. The locals are starting to move the line by a half a run plus the offshores are tightning up there lines. So don't get your hopes up on this. But gl if you can find it. TJ

[papilindo]

i see, makes sense. u say u can't do it using a book but what if u find disparate lines at diff. offshhores, say right when they make their lines? might not there be some disparity that would lend itself to this strategy?

[YoureToast]

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