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#31
10-17-2005, 12:59 PM
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Re: Possibly dumb question about preflop equity and potsize manipulation.
[ QUOTE ]
2) The number of people who would rather have JTs than, say, KQs, is always amazing to me. [/ QUOTE ] That's because JT's is about 1.5% more likely to win this pot. Remember, you still have to crack aces to win this pot, so there's really no value in a pair of kings or queens. You're looking to make straights/flushes/trips/2pair and JTs gives you the best chance of doing that. 
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#32
10-17-2005, 02:15 PM
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Re: Possibly dumb question about preflop equity and potsize manipulation.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 2) The number of people who would rather have JTs than, say, KQs, is always amazing to me. [/ QUOTE ] That's because JT's is about 1.5% more likely to win this pot. Remember, you still have to crack aces to win this pot, so there's really no value in a pair of kings or queens. You're looking to make straights/flushes/trips/2pair and JTs gives you the best chance of doing that. [/ QUOTE ] If you know for a fact that UTG is sitting on AA then you are probably not getting correct odds to play at all. For instance, against AA and 5 random hands, JTs has 15.5% equity, which is only 1.8% better than break even. When you figure in that a lot of the PS equity is due to miracle cards on the turn and river (when you will have folded), it's not clear that you should be playing even T9s, which is the best starting hand against AA. However, if there's even a 25% that you're not up against AA, then you'd rather have KQs. So if the original question is what hands do you raise when you know AA is waiting to LRR you, the answer is none. In fact, I'd only be limping with pairs and mucking everything else.
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#33
10-17-2005, 02:16 PM
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Re: Possibly dumb question about preflop equity and potsize manipulati
[ QUOTE ]
it's not clear that you should be playing even T9s, which is the best starting hand against AA. [/ QUOTE ] 76s is better
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#36
10-17-2005, 02:53 PM
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Re: Possibly dumb question about preflop equity and potsize manipulation.
I'm not raising anything if I know utg has AA. No reason to bloat a pot that you are way behind right now. You will already have enough odds to peel on most flops and can pick up way more bets on later streets if you hit.
All hands are essentially speculative when you are facing AA, so I want to get in and out cheap when I can and punish for huge gains when I can. Raising preflop and then getting LRR does not do this. Raising suited connectors or pp in your position in a huge pot is great against random hands, but I think this is all destroyed if you know someone has AA.
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#37
10-17-2005, 03:03 PM
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Some Pokerstove numbers
Assuming the blinds are loose and will come along due to pot size I put them on 2 random hands. The loose limpers were put on hand ranges of all pairs, any 2 suited, any 2 broadway, any connected, and any ace(about 50% of hands)
You'll be putting in (11.1% of the bets) These numbers are approximate as I didn't want to run stove for hours. Hero will T9s = 12.5% equity. Hero with 99 = 11.7% Hero with AKs = 9.1% Hero with KK = 12.8% Clearly this show every hands should be limped if you're 90% sure UTG has AA. Then you can bloat any hand you hit on the flop and fold the hands you miss. this is even moer true if the pot is raked as the rake you take away part of you're marginal pre-flop equity. Keeping the pot small keeps your implied odds that you'd destroy if you bloated the pot preflop.
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#38
10-17-2005, 03:32 PM
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Re: Possibly dumb question about preflop equity and potsize manipulati
I refer you to Izmet Fekali: Rammin' and Jammin' Pre-flop
I would think you want to raise AKs, AQs, AJs, and ATs, just he will not always have aces and you are giving up quite a bit by not raising those times and you are not losing much when he does have aces. Also if a limp-reraise means it is 100% that he has aces, then you can play your hand perfectly post flop which is worth a lot.
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#39
10-17-2005, 03:37 PM
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Re: Some Pokerstove numbers
Seems like your pot equity in this marginal situation is going to depend on your ability to see the turn and river.
That's going to depend on the number of opponents you have padding the pot. If you raise and the LRR drives out several limpers you are unhappy. If you do not raise and your PP misses you have implied odds to peel for 1 bet, but have to fold if the turn misses you. If you flop a pair or a clean gutshot to the nuts you have the implied odds to call 1 bet on both streets. So based on the fact the pot is going to be big enough anyway for me to see the turn, and the risk that UTG's LRR may drive out some limpers, I'm limping here. The few extra times I get to see the river with my weakest draws are more than offset by the extra 2 bets I need to put in preflop. (I left out consideration for the times I'm faced with calling 2 bets on the flop or turn...being tied to a huge pot could pay off big-time, but more often will just be very expensive).
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#40
10-17-2005, 06:17 PM
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Re: Possibly dumb question about preflop equity and potsize manipulati
I only raise AA for chop value. I call all suited connectors and pocket pairs.
you're behind the vast majority of the time with every other combination of cards, and your equity won't go up until the flop. Also, suited connectors do not have enough value because they are <font color="red">highly susceptible to redraws by Jason. </font> Consider this: Jason holds A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and limps UTG. Its called to you on the button where you raise your 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Jason re-raises, and three people call the two more cold. You call and seven head to the flop. The flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Jason bets (attempting a bet/threebet) and it's called to you where you raise. Jason re-raises and one person calls two cold between you. You call behind. the turn is the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] You've made your flush, but here's the dilemma - at this point Jason has a ton of outs on you. He's got 8 hearts, 1 ace, three jacks, three fives, and three twos. Yup. 18 outs to beat your flush in a huge pot. how much value did that hand have pf again?
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