Laying down the nuts...?

[NLfool]

wouldn't fold even if the guy had a bazooka.

[The Ocho]

I know it may sound crazy, but at some point it will become absolutely wrong to call without re-draws here.

Say you and an excellent player both had 100k behind. You bet $200 and he moves in for $99800. Your play with "just the nuts" should be a lot simpler now. You must fold.

The question is, how deep does the money have to be in order to make a fold correct?

[bones]

Exactly the amount that you can't afford to lose, both emotionally and financially.

[Justin A]

You still call. Consider it a $65000 gift from your opponent.

Justin A

[The Ocho]

[ QUOTE ]
You still call. Consider it a $65000 gift from your opponent.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is anybody else considering the only hand he makes a 100k overbet with is KQ of clubs?

[danq]

Given the pot and bet size, here's your expected value from calling against certain hands:

-486 against KcQc (straight plus flush draw)
+220 against KcQx or KdQd (straight plus backdoor flush)
+323 against straight with no flush draw (guaranteed chop)
+665 against flush draw with gutshot and pair (KTc)
+776 against flush draw with gutshot (K9c)
+994 against AA
+1750 against top two, +1554 against AdJd (top two/backdoor flush draw)

If he flashed you the king of clubs and a black queen and you couldn't tell whether it was clubs or spades, you could fold.

By the way, given the dead money in the pot, his all-in raise would have to be for 6700 more to make folding correct against KcQx or KQd.

Dan

[thatpfunk]

Well...
I was fairly surprised at the amount of "call of course" responses when knowing the opponnent is a very solid player.

While thinking about the hand I really felt that he couldn't make the play with much less than the same holding as me... It just doesn't make logical sense for a player to go overbet so much with a set when he can only get called by the nuts, but anywho...

I called and he flipped over the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]...

I would like to say that I survived, but the turn brought the fatal club [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I thought it was an excellent read/play on his part and wanted to know if anyone thought they could get away from this hand...

Thanks to those that supplied the statistical analysis as well, it was helpful.

[gcoutu]

wow, tough situtation. i would have put him on a big set and called for sure. if he has you on KQ and makes that play i certainly don't want any face time with him anytime soon.

[Mackerel]

I would be wondering if this game is on the up-and-up if he can make that kind of read here. FWIW, he would've stacked me off here without a doubt, but a solid player should have wanted more value from his hand. If this is a home game, unless he was sitting next to you and you think you might have inadvertantly flashed your cards, I'd seriously consider finding another place to play.

[greg nice]

i dont know why people are saying that you should relocate instead of playing against this guy. he sounds like a solid player but probably isnt the miraculous hand reader that some have suggested.

is this situation that hard to fathom?

villian thinks, "hrm I FLOPPED THE NUTS!ok this guy seems like a decent player. well lets see hes betting into me so i can assume hes hit the flop. probably AK, AQ for one pair w/ straight draw or possibly JT, AJ, AT for two pair. two pair would be hard to lay down. ill just push and see if he pays me off. worst could happen is that hes got KQ also and we chop. but then ill still have my flush outs. lets roll."

oh, and if i were hero i would call of course.