15/30 Raise the overcards here?

tpir90036 · #1 09-26-2005, 11:52 PM

Really good game. I feel like I would have raised if i had just one club.... but I didn't without. Flop donker was clowny but very likely to have a 7 and was not solely a draw donker.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, CO bets....???

baronzeus · #2 09-26-2005, 11:57 PM

its good that you have position on this fool. the pot is big and you need to clean up outs. i'd raise here but I think you can raise the turn too if you think he'll fire again with a draw.

hobbsmann · #3 09-27-2005, 12:06 AM

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its good that you have position on this fool. the pot is big and you need to clean up outs. i'd raise here but I think you can raise the turn too if you think he'll fire again with a draw.

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What outs are you cleaning up with a raise aside from the times UTG also has AK?

baronzeus · #4 09-27-2005, 12:08 AM

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its good that you have position on this fool. the pot is big and you need to clean up outs. i'd raise here but I think you can raise the turn too if you think he'll fire again with a draw.

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What outs are you cleaning up with a raise aside from the times UTG also has AK?

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i don't know. it's not so much cleaning up outs (i use that term wrong) as much as it is protecting my hand i guess. it's a hard board to hit (except for flush draws)

clearing out the field when you have AK is good i think, right?

silkyslim · #5 09-27-2005, 01:59 PM

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its good that you have position on this fool. the pot is big and you need to clean up outs. i'd raise here but I think you can raise the turn too if you think he'll fire again with a draw.

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What outs are you cleaning up with a raise aside from the times UTG also has AK?

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what is with people on the forum always asking what outs we are clearing? You need to protect your hand, plain and simple. You can fold out anyone with 6 outs against you, a pocket pair, maybe another AK you chop with.

Aces McGee · #6 09-27-2005, 02:02 PM

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what is with people on the forum always asking what outs we are clearing? You need to protect your hand, plain and simple. You can fold out anyone with 6 outs against you, a pocket pair, maybe another AK you chop with.

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Because cleaning up outs (like folding another AK) is different than protecting your hand (knocking out hands with six outs to beat you) or getting a better hand to fold (knocking out a pocket pair). These are important differences.

-McGee

W. Deranged · #7 09-27-2005, 12:23 AM

I got into a substantial argument on this topic a little while ago. My basic thought is that people tend to raise overcards WAY too often. Here are some thoughts:

1. You have AS-CLEAN-AS-POSSIBLE overcards. Any "dirtiness" is dirtiness you can never clean up; flush draws are not folding and hands like K7 are not huge concerns here due to the pre-flop action. Raising here will likely encourage worse overcards to fold, which are exactly the hands you WANT calling.

2. The pot is big and a raise may not accomplish that much tactically anyway.

3. When you get three-bet you are putting in a whole lot of bets to draw to 6 dirty outs. Due to the multiway nature of the pot, the large pot size, the pre-flop aggression, and so forth, you are reasonably likely to get three-bet here. A free card idea is not good here as on the turn you'll probably want to bet to protect a hand that might be good anyway.

4. It is not likely that anyone here is folding any pair on that raggedy a board, particularly a hand like 99.

5. Having position is very nice here because it means we can control the turn action. I'd actually rather be in the position of being able to decide whether to peel a card on the turn if I miss than being checked to and having to make a fairly tough decision about checking behind with possible outs or betting to protect a possibly best hand (and hence possibly getting raised off the best hand).

I don't think this is a good position to raise. Taking the "clearing people out with AK is a good idea" approach is very unsubtle in my opinion. The key point is that we have a hand that is either very safe if we hit or is dirty in a way we can't correct.

Maybe the best way to think of this is as an analogy to the standard WA/WB made-hand situation. Think of this as a Way Ahead/Way Behind DRAW . Raising will only serve to fold hands that will probably be incorrect in calling anyway and will often just open us up to tough aggression from the hands that are difficult to play against (overpairs, aggressively played flush draws, etc...).

Aces McGee · #8 09-27-2005, 10:39 AM

W...

The pot is getting pretty big here. If we can get hands with two "live cards" to fold (like JT, for instance), I think it's worth it, no? Particularly if one of those cards is a club?

-McGee

TStoneMBD · #9 09-27-2005, 12:55 AM

i just fold the flop but this is a situation im really unsure about.

tpir90036 · #10 09-27-2005, 01:26 AM

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i just fold the flop but this is a situation im really unsure about.

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Are you serious? I know that our draw is weak but getting 15:1 I can't really see folding just yet. We have a very live draw here a lot more often than you think. I know our outs are not all clean but you can't automatically take away the [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s because I got donked by the donking donker.