hmm, bubble utg hand.. thoughts?

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
it is a marginal push if everyone is very tight. however, your current image is that of a short stack who is about to lose 1/2 of his chips to the blinds, and the bb will be getting very close to 2:1 with for 1/5 of his stack. as it stands, he has a very liberal calling range, and therefor is a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's half the reason why I would fold.

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875 is nowhere NEAR screwed. -Daliman

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And that's the other half. Fold.

Irieguy

[Phil Van Sexton]

I voted fold.

I've been rethinking my shortstack UTG pushes lately. When you are BB next hand, the big stack will be SB. This will discourage the other 2 players from stealing your BB. They also know that you will be calling with any reasonable hand if the big stack does fold.

Therefore, they won't try to steal often. Once they fold, it's pretty much your random hand vs. the big stack in the SB. The big stack isn't going to push any 2 because you are so short that you are going to call A LOT.

Just a guess, but he might just fold 30% of the time. That's a pretty sweet deal. When he doens't fold, hopefully you'll have a hand better than Q5.

In summary, I'd rather count on the big stack to give up his SB on the next hand, than ask him to fold his BB on this hand. This drives the middle stacks insane, especially when you do it with a microstack because you know a 109/215 big stack will keep you alive intentionally.

[IMTheWalrus8]

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I just voted and can't believe fold is the popular choice. I'd push any two cards here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think you lose a lot of $$ doing this.

The good news is that since you've made it this far in the tourny, you already have made $$ more or less!! Woot!

Yugoslav


[/ QUOTE ]

I look at it this way:

Fold: 1475 left, and you can gimp along and try to make the money, as you have no FE left; you have six hands left to wake up with a hand

Push and everyone folds: 2075 left, you've shown aggression and have some breathing room

Push, BB calls and you win: 3150 left; obviously a great result, and it's time to shoot for first

Push, BB calls and you lose: SOL and it's time to start another SnG

The likely scenario is that BB will call with anything, which gives you a 50% chance of winning. Given the other possibilities, let's say you have a 33% chance of surviving. I think your increased chances of finishing 1st makes this a push.

The reason I think it's OK to make a move that loses more times than it wins here, is that you are already in a -EV situation as the short stack and the BB in the next hand.

[lacky]

Oh man, I gotta agree with Dali, that sucks!

Steve

[kiffl]

I voted for fold, because Q5o is just to weak of a hand to be pushing. Even if you had Kx I would probably fold here because of the big stack in the big blind who might notice your push could be with two random cards.

[tminus]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, what's that % vs THREE random hands, one of which may be real?

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so you only push hands that can hold up if every player calls?
wow

[Daliman]

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I just voted and can't believe fold is the popular choice. I'd push any two cards here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think you lose a lot of $$ doing this.

The good news is that since you've made it this far in the tourny, you already have made $$ more or less!! Woot!

Yugoslav


[/ QUOTE ]

I look at it this way:

Fold: 1475 left, and you can gimp along and try to make the money, as you have no FE left; you have six hands left to wake up with a hand

Push and everyone folds: 2075 left, you've shown aggression and have some breathing room

Push, BB calls and you win: 3150 left; obviously a great result, and it's time to shoot for first

Push, BB calls and you lose: SOL and it's time to start another SnG

The likely scenario is that BB will call with anything, which gives you a 50% chance of winning. Given the other possibilities, let's say you have a 33% chance of surviving. I think your increased chances of finishing 1st makes this a push.

The reason I think it's OK to make a move that loses more times than it wins here, is that you are already in a -EV situation as the short stack and the BB in the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why exactly are most of you only considering the BB calling? The other 2 players have cards too, you know. Also, while a blinds steal is nice here, it still is FAR from being ITM, and the big stack is in your BB, ready to take back those chips all the time.

Looking for your leaks, raptor? You're a pushbot, and you attempt to ICM EVERYTHING to justify it.

With the tools, I get -2.5%, -$50.19 on my TIGHT calling ranges

Button:66+,ATs+,AJo+
SB: 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KQs+
BB: 22+,A2s+,A2o+,K2s+,K7o+,Q8s+,J7s+, Q9+, J9+,T9s

And the BB will likely call with more hands than this, as will the other players.

Holla back

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, what's that % vs THREE random hands, one of which may be real?

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so you only push hands that can hold up if every player calls?
wow

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Yes, no wonder I do SO badly at these.

Reading comprehenision is a skill. You may wish to learn it sometime.