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#31
11-28-2005, 03:47 PM
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
[ QUOTE ]
How do we feel about a flop raise? [/ QUOTE ] i hate it, why shut out the button? but we just gotta gotta gotta bet the turn. i mean seriously. the turn check was so bad IMO...i see josh's arguments but i still think it's godawful especially since button is likely coming along with his pair. 
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#32
11-28-2005, 03:50 PM
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i think its an easy call with the turn check considered. [/ QUOTE ] a bunch of people have said easy call but provided no justification. would you like to be the one to explain to me why its so easy? fwiw i still think its a fold because both opponents have us beat some portion of the time [/ QUOTE ] I just don't see why anyone has him on a 5 for calling once and checking the turn. Sometimes someone is full, other times they have KQ AK K7 blah blah blah. Had you bet the turn, I think you can make a case for a fold. [/ QUOTE ] neither player is aggressive, and i doubt either is tricky/smart enough to think that no one has anything and take a shot like a check-3bet. one of them slowplayed something. i can admit the button will often have AK, but KQ is not likely. people do not often slowplay pairs but will slowplay a boat like this. i think people dont realize the effect of a parlay like this one. both players very well might have us beat (though they are dependent on one anoter and that's important), and we will only win the % of times beat beat the SB TIMES the % of times we beat the button. if it's 50% and 33%, thats not good enough.
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#33
11-28-2005, 03:55 PM
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
The fact that we chop most times we don't lose makes our odds much worse as well.
Surf
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#34
11-28-2005, 03:57 PM
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How do we feel about a flop raise? [/ QUOTE ] i hate it, why shut out the button? but we just gotta gotta gotta bet the turn. i mean seriously. the turn check was so bad IMO...i see josh's arguments but i still think it's godawful especially since button is likely coming along with his pair. [/ QUOTE ] i really dont think its as bad as you guys make it out to be. granted i would bet but i dont think its as bad as everyone makes it out to be. ill try again to see if at least people see some merit in it, and if not, ill shut up about it. taking the players individually. an average aggressive SB bets out 3 ways into a 755 flop. thats usually a draw, pair, A high, or maybe sometimes a complete bluff. then he checks the turn. i think that the vast majority of the time he is done with this hand, but he might be coerced into betting the river if everyone checks. now look at the button. he will call that flop with probably at least 90% of his range, and probably closer to 100%. so we cant just put him on a pair. even these terrible players will stop chasing their J9 on a board like this. but he has some aggression in him so maybe he will take a stab at it. and if not, we maybe can let them catch a pair to pay us off with. the underriding concept is that the pot is small compared to the size of the bet. when this is the case our priority shifts from winning the pot to winning extra bets. *one thing i have been thinking about lately is our opponents implied odds. for example, if we let the SB catch a gutter, it will likely cost us 3-4 bets. so in our attempt to gain a bet, not only did we lose the 3 BB pot but we lost 3 BB in implied odds. so we have to be more careful in general, because the real size of the pot for our opponent is the money in the pot + the money theyll take of our stack if he hits. this applies here and is probably a good reason to bet*
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#35
11-28-2005, 03:58 PM
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
one thing i thought was that the flop was Q55 and not 755. yes, im pretty sure button comes along with anything, which i didnt consider originally.
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#37
11-28-2005, 04:06 PM
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
[ QUOTE ]
dont you think this sort of sb checks the turn with a flush/straight draw a lot? [/ QUOTE ] yeah actually this has to be the #1 reason to bet. he is exactly the type of player to bet the flop with a draw then check the turn
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#38
11-28-2005, 04:48 PM
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
[ QUOTE ]
he is exactly the type of player to bet the flop with a draw then check the turn [/ QUOTE ] Is that bad? Will you generally bet a turn UI against 2 out of position?
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#39
11-28-2005, 04:53 PM
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] he is exactly the type of player to bet the flop with a draw then check the turn [/ QUOTE ] Is that bad? Will you generally bet a turn UI against 2 out of position? [/ QUOTE ] in an unraised pot like this, ill probably take another stab. for some reason, they will make looser calls than if there was a PFR. its like the chances you have AA makes up for the fact that the pot is twice as big. ARBITRAGE. pump the pot, win just as often
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#40
11-28-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
I must be going insane. I was thinking this is a definite cap. I think we are ahead more than 33% of the time. Buttons hand looks like K7 or AK and his AF and PFR is very in line with these 2 hands. Maybe even KJ or smaller. I think we definitely have button beat over 85% of the time. I think sb is the real threat. He whiffs a checkraise on the turn and tries again on the river... But he bet the flop. Hes doing something extremely fancy or he has air/misclick/KQ. Even K7 works for him. A 75/5 player with his AF could easily be reconsidering betting his 7 again in fear of a raise from a 5 or someone hit the Q. Then when its checked through, he could have hit the K and figured his hand is easily good? I'm having a very hard time putting sb on ANY hand. But if hes a 75/5 (probably meaning he doesn't think like the rest of us) I'd be willing to say that we are ahead of him more than 39% of the time. The amount that we would need if we were 85% of the time ahead of button.
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