The biggest leak ?

[DeathDonkey]

So let me summarize: you read comments from players here that you think are wrong. Said players claim to make money at poker and specifically Party 1/2. You lose money at Party 1/2. You claim this points towards the conclusion that said players are lying about their winrates / success, instead of the conclusion I draw, that said players are right, and your wrong and play bad.

-DeathDonkey

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess the point of my post wasn't very clear.

I am quite certain I am not an expert micro limit player. However, I am equally certain I am doing some things very well because I have a very good understanding of the issues and mathematics. I've been playing for over a year, have read "all" the required material and understand and apply most of it.

The fact that I am losing at $1 - $2 quite badly despite what I do know that I know, is not so much a commentary on my play but on the claims of others here.

I read many hand histories here and see some commentary that I know to be wrong. Yet these same players claim to be winning multiple bets per 100 hands. I do not believe that my own lack of success or their success can be strictly a matter of variance. I suspect that many players that claim they are winning are not.

No doubt I need to improve my game and perhaps I have had some bad luck, but I am certain there are many fewer winners here than you would think.

[/ QUOTE ]

You bring up some interesting points here.

A) People on here tend to inflate their winrates for whatever reason.

B) Players who claim to be "winners" constantly make bad comments.

So I would counter with this...

Claim A probably carries some kind of weight for a few different reasons:

1) These people who claim to be winners are flat lying.
2) These people have only played a small number of hands and don't know what it means to a be a long term winner.

Point 1 is probably not true for most people. Some people will lie about their winrate, but you have to be savvy enough to understand that when something looks too good to be true, it probably is. When someone tells you that they have won 4 BB/100 over 200k hands at 15/30 yet they still insist on playing 2/4, they are probably a charletan.

Point 2 is usually what happens and it isn't a bad thing at all. It is just that when we start playing (and do really well) we WANT to believe that we are good at the game. People who haven't had bad down turns (because they have played 5k or 10k hands or whatever) are commonplace in micro limits (it is a learning ground for most).

Claim B is more interesting because you have to equate playing ability with posting ability. I'm sure that there are some people who post here that play exceptional poker but have a hard to conveing exactly what they are thinking. There are also average players who can make great posts for a variety of reasons. When you are sitting at the table, you might take an average of 3-5 seconds before making a decision. When you look at a post for 20 mintues, it is much easier to come up with the correct line or strategy. It is much harder to do at gametime speed and I can imagine that some great posters struggle while playing because they need more time to think though the choices they have to make. It is much like having a teacher in college that is a genius but is horrible at getting the point across. There are also teachers who are great at getting things to stick, but their knowledge is lacking and they constantly have to be corrected.

As an add-on to claim B, you also have to understand that what you deem to be "wrong" won't always be just that. A classic example would be when someone has AA and doesn't cap preflop in a HU situation (and with position). Many people will often view it as "wrong" when it might actually be the clear cut play the vast majority of the time. And if you do think that the advice is shady, feel free to challenge it or ask questions. It doesn't do anyone any good if we are posting bad advice without knowing it or without it getting corrected.

Brad

[DeadManJay]

[ QUOTE ]
When you are sitting at the table, you might take an average of 3-5 seconds before making a decision. When you look at a post for 20 mintues, it is much easier to come up with the correct line or strategy. It is much harder to do at gametime speed and I can imagine that some great posters struggle while playing because they need more time to think though the choices they have to make.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe this comment is right on the money. I also think that alot of the problem with the winrates are that they aren't really that accurate even at 10k hands. I agree that you can never really believe anyone when they talk stats unless they have pics to back it up.

[MooFrog]

If you're not going to trust their statements, what's the point of wanting pictures? From some of the pictures I've seen of PT stats (only one line), it would be trivial for many, many people to whip that up on their computer.

I just don't think it's worth caring whether people lie about win rates or not, there's enough people on the board that the general averages are pretty well set out. For the number of people that play poker, it's always possible that one person could have a large sample set where they got tons of good cards; not likely, but possible.

[Stuey]

[ QUOTE ]
According to Gary Carson the biggest leak by far is lack of table selection. He certainly is not the only one who thinks this, but I am reading his book right now and he makes a big point of it.

I mention this in the context of comments about needing to be "expert" to make money at this game. Nothing could be further from the truth. You could suck arse and as long as your opponents suck more, you will make money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes to much sence for me to ignore. Table selection is boring, and feels like a waste of playing time. This is something I am going to work on. People say it does not matter at .5/1 tables as all the players are bad enough to beat. But if I don't build my table selection skills now when will I? Here is the only really good post I found on the topic.

Bisonbison's take on table selection

As I was looking over my stats I found some disturbing trends. Bankroll risk of ruin violations! I wonder how many of us that claim we are winning players are guilty of this. Here is the full story. I have a win rate of about 1.5BB/100 at the .5/1 tables. I lose at NL but I don't play it often. When I do play it I WILL lose my entire buy in. I like to gamboola it up in NL. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] I also waste money in MTT's. I have gotten lucky and made 3 final tables and won once. But I cashed that out and don't consider it part of my backroll anymore. I now try to follow a 500BB rule and have been focusing on limit play only.

So I can have a good even great win rate but if I play at to high of limits I will always be a loser. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
And if you do think that the advice is shady, feel free to challenge it or ask questions. It doesn't do anyone any good if we are posting bad advice without knowing it or without it getting corrected.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is may be the best advice I've seen Brad post, and he posts a sh*tload of good poker advice on these forums.

Jump in whenever you disagree, no matter who the poster is. Lurkers: stop lurking and join the discussion -- even if you think you'll look foolish, you're actually being foolish by keeping your questions to yourself (and looking foolish can easily be corrected, and indeed capitalized on, by responding "Yeah, that was a pretty stupid argument").

[GrunchCan]

Here's a list of some of my recent and not so recent leaks, some of which I've plugged, others I'm still working on.

1) Reliance on stats to guide & judge play
2) Reliance on starting hand charts & other kool aid
3) Bluffing
4) Pushing marginal hands OOP after the flop *
5) Lack of table selection
6) The why's, when's and how's PF hand selection

#4 is the big one I'm working on now. The others I've pretty much fixed.

[Frank Zappy]

Um, All of the above?