Play from a poorer country and you're set?

[stigmata]

UK

[mxyzptlk]

One major thing to consider is that we are currently in a poker boom, and eventually there will be a poker decline or crash. Unlike a stock market crash, you will not instantly lose a lot of money, but your profitability will decline because there will not be as many fish. Also, it might be hard to detect when the decline happens because your profitability might decline slowly and you might think that it will rebound. Before you make any major life decisions think about:

1) How long will the boom last?
2) What is my profitability in tighter/harder games?
3) Do I have an exit strategy if the decline comes and my win rate declines to 1BB/hour?

[Jamper]

The propagation of the Internet across 3rd world countries is giving millions of talented & gifted people the opportunity to earn a much higher standard of living playing poker online than they could otherwise hope to earn with a typical job. The skills of successful players by today's standards will pale in comparison to the skills required of successful players a few years from now. That's another poker "bubble" to consider.

-jamper

[oreogod]

Ah yes, the infamous battle cry that the end of the fish are neh. Please.

It's been what 30 or so years since Super System has been written and since twoplustwo has started publishing their books (or since sklansky started putting words to paper) and I hear people have been doing just fine since then and now. Sure theres more people now, but the amount of people still outweigh the amount of people that can play. It's a little more pronounced now, yes, but I believe it will always always be this way...think about it, with the number of people all playing cards right now, how many actually take the long ass amount of time it takes to really study this game, this site, the books, the play on tv -- and Im not talking about skimming, u want to be up there u got to really dig. I think the previous two statements are not even close to what reality will be.

Also, think about what happens if the next two years the WSOP is won by more internet players or somebody that bought in on the cheap through a satellite...I think the pool of players will grow.

Besides for a lot of people, new ones also, we are not talking about a simple game here, for some its more than that...we have addiction on our side. So relax, there will still be plenty of players over the long haul.

And stop this 'its the end' crap, people are starting to sound like those damn street preachers screaming about The End of Times. It is rather annoying.

[Jamper]

oreogod, you raised some good points and forced me to think a little deeper. My counter-arguement:

As Internet-access increases in countries with low annual wages (compared to the US), the fish & potential-pros will start out in the micro-limits. As the potential-pros increase in skill, they will rise to higher blinds. BUT, given their limited disposable income, the fish will remain at the micro-limits. And by micro-limits, I'm referring to $0.05/0.10 and the like.

The problem here is that WE won't be able to profit off those fish & the good players that rise out of the micro-limits will start feeding on OUR fish.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
oreogod, you raised some good points and forced me to think a little deeper. My counter-arguement:

As Internet-access increases in countries with low annual wages (compared to the US), the fish & potential-pros will start out in the micro-limits. As the potential-pros increase in skill, they will rise to higher blinds. BUT, given their limited disposable income, the fish will remain at the micro-limits. And by micro-limits, I'm referring to $0.05/0.10 and the like.

The problem here is that WE won't be able to profit off those fish & the good players that rise out of the micro-limits will start feeding on OUR fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay first, sorry that post came out in an attack stance, it was aimed more in frustration at the many many claims I keep hearing on the boards and from others. I understand the view, but as to your counter argument (and this may not get very deep as I am in the middle of packing for an early flight back to the US from Germany)...

.....Well actually I want to mull this over a little, I think ur argument has validity but I still find it hard to accept. Point, how long has the poker boom been really going, around the time of moneymakers success? A little after, lets say. So its been rolling on, snowballing for about 3 years now. Even at the high limits I find many many people who just seem to have an unlimited sum of money to hand out, I think it will stay that way, as the pool grows, more come in, and replace the others, balancing the ecosystem. Rinse and repeat.

There will be some maybe even many who actually take the time to learn and become somewhat succesful at the game, look at this forum...there are quite a few struggling to get this game down...but I think the many who have no clue and think they do will always outweigh the few that take the time to figure out what is going on and learn.

Look at how many are on Party Poker and other sites right now, at this moment...compare that to the number of posters on this site. Hell if we could compare twoplustwos books sales to the number of online players, I think we represent a minutia of the multitude playing right now.

True its a generalization and these ideas are more or less coming off the top of the brain right now. Like I said, let me mull it over. Like the argument though, it does hold water, but its still a hard one for me to see actually happen. Again, what happens if another satellite internet player grabs a title or two at this years WSOP. Craziness will ensue.

Anyway, the more the merrier. It brings more that know how to play but even more that dont.

In general this fits what I think of as a good debate. Keep it up.

[2ndGoat]

I followed that link on BJ RoR, but I'm confused. If the formula is:

Bank = -2 * ln(RoR) * Overhead * (SD/EV)^2

Don't we now how a bankroll requirement that approaches 0 as expenses approach 0 (leaving other variables fixed)? This seems to imply that if you don't have expenses, it is impossible for a winning player to bust at any limit given a bankroll of $1.

I thought I had a pretty good handle on this stuff... throw in the expense variable and I don't get it. I mean, I went ahead and got a 1000 BB bankroll anyway (yes, some of which is tied up in fixed and liquid investment, don't tell me I'm suffering from overkill), but academically, I'm still curious.

2ndGoat

[Jamper]

no offense taken // more food for thought:

[ QUOTE ]
Point, how long has the poker boom been really going, around the time of moneymakers success? A little after, lets say. So its been rolling on, snowballing for about 3 years now. Even at the high limits I find many many people who just seem to have an unlimited sum of money to hand out, I think it will stay that way, as the pool grows, more come in, and replace the others, balancing the ecosystem. Rinse and repeat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Vegas always has 'the best of it' and it's been rocking on for decades, with no end in sight. For people in the US, outside of legalized gambling areas, the Internet has become the biggest game in town. I don't doubt the losers will keep coming back. If Internet gambling could somehow be limited to only players in the US then, by and large, I would agree with you.

But, no, expansion of Internet access across the globe throws a new wrinkle into the equation. A few nights ago I was watching a 30/60 game and saw an Eastern European player playing excellent poker. To him, the value of his winnings were maybe 10-20 times higher than what the average US player would consider them to be. In one night, he just made the equivalent of the average annual salary for someone in his country.

Talk about the motivation to learn -- He's going to put every ounce of his energy into learning this game. And so will many others like him.

You've traveled. Anyone who has gotten to know, really know, the people that were born into countries with what we would consider low per-capita average incomes.. People who don't have the freedom to immigrate to 1st-world countries..

Anyone who understands firsthand their sense of frustration, their yearning for a better life, knows that they will throw themselves into the study of poker with hither-to unimaginable zeal & dedication.

Another aspect of this situation was addressed by Derek in NYC:

[ QUOTE ]
What if some piss-poor third world country like Sri Lanka decided to develop online poker as an "industry". People could go to college and major in "poker". The government would set up a building with connectivity and government-owned accounts. The professional poker players would sit down with the government's bankroll, and "play" 5/10 or 10/20 holdem. Supervisors would be on the lookout for cheaters/colluders dumping off government money to private parties. Players would be rated on their play skills and profitability, and would get an override on profits. It would basically be similar to the way a Wall Street trading desk works, except it would be done with poker. Could this amount to a meaningful revenue stream in a country like Sri Lanka or Tibet, which is essentially agricultural?

[/ QUOTE ]

jokerthief countered with:

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this would work unless the government was despotic or grossly under payed their workers. I think if the workers were able to make even a marginal income doing this, they would do whatever it took to get thier own computer so they could keep all that they win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Take it a step further: Mafia-types in Eastern European countries could do something like this quite profitably, especially because so many people there, with mathematical-based educations, are struggling just to survive. The main difference being - if the player tried to break away, the Mafia would hurt/kill his family.

Another aspect to consider:

As people from other countries begin siphoning off an ever greater amount of money from US players, the economic gurus will start publishing their papers and the legislators will take notice. They'll try to do something, but what can they do?

The anti-gambling laws that restrict US citizens from playing on international gambling sites are already in conflict with our World Trade Organization agreements. We've appealed twice & lost twice.

It seems to me that the US national & state governments will have great difficulty trying to prevent US citizens from gambling online. To regulate it, they may have to legalize it & thereby find some way to prevent the loss of funds.

Short of such drastic measures, I don't see anything that will keep the game from getting much much harder.

===

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, the more the merrier. It brings more that know how to play but even more that dont.

[/ QUOTE ]

So long as you don't mind playing at the $0.05/0.10 level, I wholeheartedly agree with you. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-jamp

[JellyFishy]

Some guys mentioning that they play or consider playing from the above countries?

I circulate around all continents since I got my MA from school, run a company totally mobile- so I'll give some comments.

BA, Argentina you can easily find free wifi in any shopping plaza, or near telefonica phone center. It's a buzz there, so many pretty girls and everything so cheap because the peso devalued to 3 to 1 dollar, 3 years ago. The place is not like a 3rd world country, living standards are good, just cheap. English gets along okay, Spanish is perfect.

Brasil, in Sao Paulo you can easily find wifi access. In Rio, however, only a few hotels have paid access. Plugging your laptop into an internet cafe is possible in some places and cost about $2 an hour. Brasil looks poorer than Argentina. English is so-so acceptable, Spanish better, but ideally Portuguese.

Thailand you will have problems with Partypoker withdrawals, PP bars cashier access from Thailand but I simply redirect my ip address using http proxy servers, so it's no problem. Wifi access easily available in Bangkok.
Almost everybody can speak some English.

Ukraine is bad especially in Kiev, Internet cafe is relatively expensive, rent is getting expensive, and only the best hotel have public wifi. You can get a wifi wave finder and try to hack into some offices wireless router, otherwise you have to find very rare apartments with internet connection or stay in top hotels. English is not widely spoken, but I studied Russian in school.

I hang around many other places, feel free to ask before you go

[ZeeBee]

In the world of multi-player games, there are a number of folks living in less well developed regions who pour thousands of hours into the games and then make a decent living (for them) by selling on the characters and artefacts they have built up to richer westerners who don't have the time or the energy to run around in the lower levels of the games.

It wouldn't take much for them to turn their attention to poker.

ZB